Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?No | buy | 9.09 | $0.110 | $1 | May 20, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 20.83 |
| $0.048 |
| $1 |
| May 20, 2026 |
 Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes | sell | 7.04 | $0.300 | $2.11 | May 20, 2026 |
 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No | sell | 25.67 | $0.310 | $7.96 | May 20, 2026 |
 Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 7.35 | $0.600 | $4.41 | Mar 28, 2026 |
 Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?Yes | sell | 9.09 | $0.600 | $5.45 | Mar 28, 2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 7.35 | $0.680 | $5 | Mar 28, 2026 |
 Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 8.93 | $0.560 | $5 | Mar 28, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31?Yes | sell | 7.4 | $0.070 | $0.52 | Mar 23, 2026 |
 US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No | sell | 27.39 | $0.820 | $22.46 | Mar 23, 2026 |
 Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Yes | sell | 18.8 | $0.986 | $18.54 | Mar 23, 2026 |
 Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?Yes | sell | 22.98 | $0.090 | $2.07 | Mar 23, 2026 |
 Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 22, 2026?Yes | sell | 12.27 | $0.005 | $0.06 | Mar 23, 2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 22.99 | $0.870 | $20 | Mar 21, 2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?Yes | sell | 17.24 | $0.060 | $1.03 | Mar 21, 2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 22, 2026?Yes | buy | 12.28 | $0.815 | $10 | Mar 21, 2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?Yes | buy | 17.24 | $0.290 | $5 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?No | sell | 6.84 | $0.710 | $4.86 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?No | buy | 6.85 | $0.730 | $5 | Mar 20, 2026 |
 Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 12.01 | $0.833 | $10 | Mar 20, 2026 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Yes | buy | 2.7 | $0.370 | $1 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Yes | buy | 8.33 | $0.120 | $1 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?Yes | buy | 9.09 | $0.550 | $5 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31?Yes | buy | 7.41 | $0.270 | $2 | Mar 20, 2026 |
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?No | buy | 1.23 | $0.810 | $1 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Yes | buy | 2.86 | $0.350 | $1 | Mar 20, 2026 |
 Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?Leadership Change | buy | 1.85 | $0.540 | $1 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Yes | buy | 3.33 | $0.300 | $1 | Mar 19, 2026 |
 Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 19, 2026?Yes | buy | 20.77 | $0.963 | $20 | Mar 19, 2026 |
| Hezbollah military action against Israel by March 20?Yes | buy | 31.35 | $0.957 | $30 | Mar 19, 2026 |
 Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026?Yes | sell | 22.72 | $0.868 | $19.72 | Mar 19, 2026 |
| Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 22.73 | $0.880 | $20 | Mar 19, 2026 |
 Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 18, 2026?No | sell | 34.51 | $0.004 | $0.14 | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 18, 2026?No | buy | 7.69 | $0.130 | $1 | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 18, 2026?No | buy | 4.55 | $0.220 | $1 | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 18, 2026?No | buy | 13.94 | $0.072 | $1 | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 18, 2026?No | buy | 8.33 | $0.120 | $1 | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 19, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.1 | $0.910 | $1 | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 19, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.11 | $0.900 | $1 | Mar 18, 2026 |
 Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Yes | buy | 2.86 | $0.350 | $1 | Mar 18, 2026 |
 US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?Yes | sell | 53.34 | $0.190 | $10.13 | Mar 17, 2026 |
 Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 16.94 | $0.350 | $5.93 | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30?Yes | sell | 10.63 | $0.350 | $3.72 | Mar 17, 2026 |
 Military action against Iran ends by March 28, 2026?No | buy | 57.47 | $0.870 | $50 | Mar 16, 2026 |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31?Yes | sell | 2.17 | $0.260 | $0.56 | Mar 15, 2026 |
 Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday?No | sell | 43.49 | $0.999 | $43.45 | Mar 15, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No | sell | 8 | $0.993 | $7.94 | Mar 15, 2026 |
| Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?No | buy | 8.24 | $0.850 | $7 | Mar 15, 2026 |
| Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?Yes | sell | 66.02 | $0.140 | $9.23 | Mar 15, 2026 |
| Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?No | buy | 15.34 | $0.652 | $10 | Mar 14, 2026 |