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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 14.08 | $0.710 | $11.34 | +$1.34 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No | buy | 12.17 | $0.822 | $10 | 19d ago |
|
| No |
| 12.17 |
| $0.822 |
| $9 |
| -$1 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 1.89 | $0.530 | $1.76 | +$0.76 |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 1.52 | $0.660 | $1.45 | +$0.45 |
 US recession by end of 2026? | No | 1.39 | $0.720 | $1.27 | +$0.27 |
 Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 1.12 | $0.890 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 1.12 | $0.892 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 1.14 | $0.880 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
 Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | 1.08 | $0.925 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
 Will Alberta join the US? | No | 1.04 | $0.958 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
 Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | Yes | 10 | $0.100 | $0.8 | -$0.2 |
 JD Vance out as VP by December 31? | Yes | 11.11 | $0.090 | $0.61 | -$0.39 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 3.7 | $0.270 | $0.57 | -$0.43 |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | 4.17 | $0.240 | $0.23 | -$0.77 |
| buy |
| 14.08 |
| $0.710 |
| $10 |
| 19d ago |
 Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before September 1, 2026?Yes | buy | 13.24 | $0.755 | $10 | 19d ago |
| Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before September 1, 2026?Yes | buy | 11.78 | $0.849 | $10 | 19d ago |
| Will Alberta join the US?No | buy | 1.04 | $0.958 | $1 | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes | buy | 3.45 | $0.290 | $1 | May 31, 2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Yes | buy | 4.17 | $0.240 | $1 | May 29, 2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.050 | $1 | May 29, 2026 |
| JD Vance out as VP by December 31?Yes | buy | 11.11 | $0.090 | $1 | May 28, 2026 |
 Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 1.18 | $0.844 | $1 | May 26, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Yes | buy | 12.05 | $0.083 | $1 | May 25, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.89 | $0.530 | $1 | May 23, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 1.32 | $0.760 | $1 | May 23, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.07 | $0.935 | $1 | May 23, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 1.02 | $0.985 | $1 | May 22, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 3.33 | $0.300 | $1 | May 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.64 | $0.610 | $1 | May 19, 2026 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?No | buy | 1.02 | $0.982 | $1 | May 18, 2026 |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.12 | $0.890 | $1 | May 15, 2026 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No | buy | 1.08 | $0.925 | $1 | May 13, 2026 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Yes | buy | 8.33 | $0.120 | $1 | Mar 16, 2026 |
 Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?No | buy | 1.07 | $0.934 | $1 | Mar 13, 2026 |
 US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?Yes | buy | 3.13 | $0.320 | $1 | Mar 13, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 4.57 | $0.219 | $1 | Mar 12, 2026 |
 Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?No | buy | 3.7 | $0.270 | $1 | Mar 12, 2026 |
| US recession by end of 2026?No | buy | 1.39 | $0.720 | $1 | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No | buy | 1.52 | $0.660 | $1 | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?No | buy | 1.08 | $0.922 | $1 | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes | buy | 3.7 | $0.270 | $1 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Yes | buy | 6.29 | $0.159 | $1 | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No | buy | 1.12 | $0.892 | $1 | Mar 2, 2026 |
 Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?No | buy | 1.1 | $0.910 | $1 | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.14 | $0.880 | $1 | Feb 12, 2026 |
 US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Yes | buy | 2.22 | $0.450 | $1 | Feb 12, 2026 |
 Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.67 | $0.150 | $1 | Feb 11, 2026 |
 Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 27.31 | $0.037 | $1 | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.100 | $1 | Feb 10, 2026 |
 Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?Yes | buy | 16.67 | $0.060 | $1 | Feb 9, 2026 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No | buy | 1.2 | $0.830 | $1 | Feb 9, 2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Yes | buy | 2.22 | $0.450 | $1 | Feb 8, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 12.5 | $0.080 | $1 | Feb 8, 2026 |