Analytics
Resolved Yes on 9 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 6.5%. Yes opened at 32% on 14 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 101 daily closes on record from 14 Jan 2026 to 8 May 2026 (14 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 32% on 14 Jan 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 8 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 23.5% on 15 Jan 2026. $60.67M traded over the market's life.
718 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 10, 7:50 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 101 points, 14 Jan 2026 – 8 May 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2026 | 32.0% |
| 8 May 2026 | 6.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Worst-Precipitation | No | 2.9M |
| RolandIsMe | No | 1.2M |
| lapik | No | 1M |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-june-30-2026
| No |
| 997K |
| qheleness | No | 647.6K |
| istrueis | No | 498K |
| aleale5 | No | 433K |
| Unacceptable-Yolk | No | 432K |
| 202603 | No | 286.01K |
| bestchange | No | 242.51K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
