Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.7%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 11 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 11 Mar 2026 to 27 Mar 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 9.3% on 12 Mar 2026 and the lowest 1.8% on 26 Mar 2026. $190.98K traded over the market's life.
104 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 4:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 11 Mar 2026 – 27 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Mar 2026 | 5.5% |
| 27 Mar 2026 | 2.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Yupionso | Yes | 4.08K |
| Bleak-Jealousy | Yes | 1.5K |
| Crimson Orbit D5CD | Yes | 1.21K |
| 0557 | Yes | 1.01K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a European country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that an Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice, regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-any-european-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-march-31
| miracle | Yes | 1K |
| Newshound | Yes | 810.74 |
| 0xjiumeng | Yes | 800 |
| howdoyoudu | Yes | 800 |
| ACara | Yes | 719.65 |
| Gummy-Glove | Yes | 500 |
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