Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 8% on 19 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 42 daily closes on record from 19 Feb 2026 to 1 Apr 2026, the highest close was 22.5% on 14 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 22% on 9 Mar 2026. $5.67M traded over the market's life.
623 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 7:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 19 Feb 2026 – 1 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Feb 2026 | 8.0% |
| 1 Apr 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GeorgeFloydtheBreathless | Yes | 45.23K |
| basedinsider | Yes | 21.49K |
| Zoantharia | Yes | 18.74K |
| Leon8899 | Yes | 18K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-by-march-31
| Limping-Equality | Yes | 15.42K |
| Guilty-Rake | Yes | 14.36K |
| Indigo Vector B6AF | Yes | 13.43K |
| PhongLeXBT | Yes | 10.75K |
| hexahexa99 | Yes | 10.4K |
| zhuangzhuang123 | Yes | 10.29K |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
