Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.5%. Yes opened at 31% on 12 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 12 Mar 2026 to 28 Mar 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 38.5% on 14 Mar 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 28 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 12.5% on 21 Mar 2026. $2.05M traded over the market's life.
572 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 17, 10:38 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 12 Mar 2026 – 28 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2026 | 31.0% |
| 28 Mar 2026 | 4.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xanx | Yes | 12.68K |
| Skinny-Class | Yes | 7.9K |
| BTCGambler247 | Yes | 7.65K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-escorts-commercial-ship-through-hormuz-by-march-31
| Yes |
| 7.63K |
| ST1111 | Yes | 4.97K |
| chickendimmer | Yes | 4.88K |
| h.bonus | Yes | 4.06K |
| Raphthebigbossoftheworld | Yes | 3.81K |
| Rishi.sunak | Yes | 3.57K |
| Chewalk | Yes | 2.06K |
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