Will the US strike Iran next?

Name: Will the US strike Iran next? — implied probability history
License: https://vultax.com/legal/terms

Resolved

No, settled Feb 5, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.4M

Resolved

Settled

Feb 5, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Positions left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	129.91K	0.0%	$0
Opikio	Yes	46.28K	0.5%	$255.99
Nobody5741wrr	Yes	35.33K	3.0%	$1.07K
Da2511	Yes	25.34K	0.5%	$130.9	Feb 4, 9:44 PM UTC
Remote-Stacking	Yes	20K	0.1%	$20	Feb 4, 11:20 PM UTC
Sore-Ottoman	Yes	14.85K	0.3%	$39.99
Royal Harbor 4370	Yes	11.45K	0.3%	$32.47
Hungry-Panic	Yes	10.57K	0.3%	$28.97
Chileno901	Yes	10K	10.0%	$999.99
Dreary-Commitment	Yes	8.88K	0.4%	$35.28
hoetective	Yes	8.79K	19.3%	$1.7K
Fat-Tail	Yes	7.5K	0.5%	$34.97	Feb 4, 8:49 PM UTC
Totomen	Yes	6.59K	0.3%	$18.98	Feb 4, 10:03 PM UTC
Nippy-Miter	Yes	6.45K	0.8%	$48.79	Feb 4, 6:23 PM UTC
Mutnt	Yes	6.13K	0.5%	$29.99	Feb 4, 10:59 PM UTC
11123asddas	Yes	5.63K	0.2%	$13.66	Feb 4, 7:43 PM UTC
JaroKing	Yes	4.08K	0.4%	$17.98	Feb 4, 6:36 PM UTC
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	3.61K	0.0%	$0	Feb 4, 9:37 PM UTC
Royal Kestrel D5CD	Yes	3.54K	0.4%	$12.5	Feb 4, 9:16 PM UTC
Hospitable-Cabinet	Yes	3.5K	0.2%	$7	Feb 4, 5:23 PM UTC
Blaring-Snake	Yes	3.33K	0.3%	$10
qqqq88888	Yes	3.2K	0.2%	$6.4
Ragged-Continuity	Yes	2.43K	0.2%	$5	Feb 4, 10:35 PM UTC
Robinhd	Yes	2.07K	0.4%	$8	Feb 5, 1:04 AM UTC
Pinkbeef	Yes	2.01K	0.5%	$11
AnalyticPsycho	Yes	2K	0.1%	$2	Feb 4, 10:00 PM UTC
Frizzy-Minute	Yes	2K	0.1%	$2	Feb 4, 10:06 PM UTC
Cecemen	Yes	1.5K	0.1%	$2	Feb 4, 10:09 PM UTC
Back-Earthworm	Yes	1.5K	0.2%	$3	Feb 4, 7:27 PM UTC
Siziriv	Yes	1.48K	5.0%	$74.01	Feb 4, 9:37 PM UTC
Gigantic-Gyro	Yes	1.4K	1.8%	$24.54	Feb 4, 7:18 PM UTC
Rickytikkitok	Yes	1.33K	18.8%	$250
Xander91	Yes	1.3K	0.8%	$10.08	Feb 4, 5:41 PM UTC
Old-Fashioned-Analysis	Yes	1.26K	0.3%	$4
Fillesson	Yes	1.25K	0.4%	$5
tahmkenchbaby	Yes	1.01K	0.5%	$5	Feb 4, 6:43 PM UTC
ElNegro25	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Feb 4, 11:57 PM UTC
Pablo2407	Yes	1K	0.5%	$5
Advanced-Amendment	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Feb 4, 5:21 PM UTC
Genuine-Ecliptic	Yes	1K	4.6%	$46
Odd-Bedrock	Yes	1K	0.5%	$5
Bobentuin2	Yes	985.17	0.5%	$5
McDowling	Yes	960.06	6.2%	$60
Trtr2026	Yes	902.95	0.5%	$5	Feb 4, 7:02 PM UTC
BettingEnthusiast	Yes	890.41	3.9%	$35
Yumar0902	Yes	859.83	0.6%	$5	Feb 4, 7:21 PM UTC
Quaint-Robe	Yes	714.29	0.7%	$5	Feb 4, 6:25 PM UTC
pareto	Yes	711.46	0.7%	$5	Feb 4, 6:15 PM UTC
oak	Yes	588.45	2.5%	$14.93
Misty Ledger 1C47	Yes	571.43	3.5%	$20
monkey4	Yes	548.96	10.4%	$56.88
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	517	0.1%	$0.52
Negi123	Yes	506.25	0.4%	$2
Starchy-Replacement	Yes	500	0.2%	$1
Athletic-Netbook	Yes	500	0.2%	$1
GiacomoTrades99	Yes	500	0.2%	$1	Feb 4, 8:02 PM UTC
SuperBerta	Yes	500	0.2%	$1	Feb 4, 4:44 PM UTC
Glistening-Vault	Yes	443.56	4.2%	$18.77
Emerald Pioneer D14A	Yes	422	0.1%	$0.42
Monumental-Wildlife	Yes	419.65	15.0%	$62.86
Vo.Danh	Yes	413.18	12.3%	$50.8
Cobalt Oracle AAC7	Yes	402.08	6.0%	$24
Knowing-Pocketwatch	Yes	378.75	0.8%	$3
Litov777	Yes	375.1	1.3%	$5
Coordinated-Logo	Yes	350	0.6%	$2
Admirable-Terrarium	Yes	345.53	0.6%	$2
Roasted-Bear	Yes	333.33	0.3%	$1
Misty Meteor 45B2	Yes	333.33	0.3%	$1
GianniAgnelli	Yes	333.33	0.3%	$1	Feb 4, 9:15 PM UTC
Pushy-Autumn	Yes	315.38	5.1%	$16	Feb 4, 6:28 PM UTC
Bold Scout BD7E	Yes	292	0.1%	$0.29
wetoldyouso	Yes	287.23	8.7%	$25
Ugly-Admin	Yes	264.53	11.7%	$30.89
grishka2077	Yes	260.63	0.8%	$2	Feb 4, 6:18 PM UTC
sabosscoin	Yes	255.25	7.8%	$20
Reflecting-Skullduggery	Yes	250	0.4%	$1
Pep10	Yes	250	0.4%	$1
Witty-Chopstick	Yes	250	0.4%	$1
Ecoudav	Yes	250	0.4%	$1
Kaif2006	Yes	250	0.4%	$1
KL18	Yes	250	0.4%	$1
Agonizing-Attack	Yes	250	0.4%	$1
Amber Voyager 5485	Yes	250	0.4%	$1
ortizsimongomez	Yes	250	0.4%	$1
Repulsive-Personality	Yes	239.46	0.4%	$1	Feb 4, 5:36 PM UTC
Crimson Signal 2D74	Yes	234.93	4.7%	$11
cbaa	Yes	222.13	4.7%	$10.44
mitaaaaa241398762437568924	Yes	215.74	4.6%	$10
Nazzareno	Yes	212.77	4.7%	$10
tommyg99	Yes	211	13.0%	$27.43
paspor	Yes	203.65	0.0%	$0	Feb 4, 5:34 PM UTC
Ironclad-Ketchup	Yes	200.78	14.9%	$30
qqqqd	Yes	200.64	4.7%	$9.43
0xmmd	Yes	200	0.5%	$1	Feb 4, 7:07 PM UTC
zdyniuka	Yes	200	0.5%	$1
Dead-Case	Yes	199.99	22.0%	$44
masterpiece20	Yes	183.87	24.7%	$45.47
Useful-Guitarist	Yes	165.71	0.6%	$1
Jolly-Tablecloth	Yes	164.47	14.4%	$23.75
Crimson Vector F03A	Yes	154	0.1%	$0.15
Lined-Waterwheel	Yes	150.18	6.7%	$10
Cheap-Starboard	Yes	150.11	0.7%	$1
MikhailSchwarzsmith	Yes	146.43	0.7%	$1	Feb 4, 5:54 PM UTC
Derdennis1012	Yes	140.25	7.1%	$10
Impossible-Poster	Yes	133.33	4.8%	$6.4
Traumatic-Identity	Yes	128.53	15.6%	$20
btcupdown	Yes	127.72	11.7%	$15
Rapid Ledger 7D75	Yes	125.79	15.9%	$20
Noteworthy-Compost	Yes	122.22	18.0%	$22
pharaoh	Yes	122.18	8.2%	$10
Wry-Month	Yes	120.3	11.0%	$13.2
rated	Yes	118.14	0.0%	$0	Feb 4, 9:26 PM UTC
LejonLP	Yes	113.14	19.0%	$21.45
Conscious-Cub	Yes	109.9	4.5%	$5
Kosher-Recapitulation	Yes	109.81	14.1%	$15.46
simmetrik	Yes	107.14	28.0%	$30
Serious-Fortnight	Yes	106.38	4.7%	$5
Tomduijzer	Yes	106	4.7%	$5
Pewpo	Yes	105.77	11.3%	$12
Productive-Haversack	Yes	104.38	15.3%	$16
Nicolash1999	Yes	104.17	4.8%	$5
PenautButter	Yes	102.04	4.9%	$5
aleksos2114	Yes	100	9.2%	$9.2
JAAG	Yes	100	4.8%	$4.8
Rokokoraccoon	Yes	99.99	1.0%	$1
REZA.EK	Yes	99.18	20.2%	$20
predictionponyft	Yes	97.13	15.3%	$14.85
Jade Harbor B075	Yes	97	0.1%	$0.1
SamPapa	Yes	84.94	11.8%	$10
gADZ5Rf66p0M	Yes	76.68	13.0%	$10
Royal Maven 7A47	Yes	75.49	10.6%	$8
Infantile-Call	Yes	72.55	3.1%	$2.27
Emerald Summit B54D	Yes	71.8	18.6%	$13.36
50StackSteve	Yes	70.99	25.2%	$17.87
Keen Sphinx 9623	Yes	69.45	14.4%	$10
Flimsy-Folk	Yes	68.22	12.9%	$8.8
Glum-Statute	Yes	67.99	14.7%	$10
flow-trader-at-optiver	Yes	65.41	0.0%	$0	Feb 4, 6:38 PM UTC
Tart-Makeup	Yes	64.6	7.7%	$5
worldgonemad	Yes	63.45	7.9%	$5
PeymanSimaei	Yes	63.29	7.9%	$5
Scarce-Clutch	Yes	62.8	4.7%	$2.98
MtuM55	Yes	62.5	4.8%	$3
Exotic-Boatload	Yes	61.73	8.1%	$5
SepticCrypt	Yes	56.05	8.9%	$5
Coral Horizon FBBE	Yes	53.65	5.9%	$3.14
Aabri	Yes	53.33	15.0%	$8
Nova963	Yes	52.63	19.0%	$10
Moegardens	Yes	52.29	3.4%	$1.8
Ample-Macrame	Yes	51.88	9.6%	$5
GirthBr00ks	Yes	46.87	14.9%	$7
untalandr	Yes	46.3	10.8%	$5
Informal-Threshold	Yes	45.95	10.9%	$5
Beautiful-Arthur	Yes	44.08	11.3%	$5
natcoh	Yes	41.67	4.8%	$2
sevket2002	Yes	40.82	4.9%	$2
Coral Raven 0142	Yes	40.82	4.9%	$2
Loonore	Yes	40.82	4.9%	$2
fiona33	Yes	40	13.0%	$5.2
D3utan	Yes	38.76	12.9%	$5
Bogus-Woodwind	Yes	38.17	13.1%	$5
Thick-Flash	Yes	33.56	14.9%	$5
gambloooor	Yes	33.33	6.0%	$2
MysterTiTi	Yes	33.29	15.0%	$5
FlybyJoe	Yes	29.59	16.9%	$5
noborder	Yes	29.41	17.0%	$5
JAM268	Yes	29	1.5%	$0.44
Minor-Lemon	Yes	28.57	3.5%	$1
Serene-Kickoff	Yes	28.57	14.0%	$4
Identical-Collection	Yes	28.45	14.1%	$4
Azure Pioneer 67ED	Yes	26.46	18.9%	$5
Bold Scout 0C7D	Yes	26.04	4.8%	$1.25
jojaba	Yes	25.86	11.6%	$3
Meager-Aftershave	Yes	25.42	11.8%	$3
Yellowish-Crocodile	Yes	25.32	15.8%	$4
Keen Maven B8C6	Yes	25	12.0%	$3
Nervous-Centurion	Yes	24.03	12.5%	$3
Roasted-Spiderling	Yes	22.46	11.8%	$2.65
VaraksinViktor	Yes	21.28	4.7%	$1
CyrptoM24	Yes	20.83	4.8%	$1
Legitimate-Stucco	Yes	20.83	4.8%	$1
S888	Yes	20	6.0%	$1.2
wizardsmagic	Yes	20	6.3%	$1.26
Jade Pioneer 52FD	Yes	19.61	5.1%	$1
yobtw	Yes	19.23	5.2%	$1
bendrany	Yes	18.75	16.0%	$3
sepidd	Yes	18.35	10.9%	$2
50callll	Yes	18.18	5.5%	$1
Arturo12345	Yes	17.65	17.0%	$3
Easy-Going-Popsicle	Yes	16.74	17.9%	$3
Trusty-Chassis	Yes	16.13	12.4%	$2
AfroRick	Yes	14.93	6.7%	$1
Self-Assured-Interchange	Yes	14.49	6.9%	$1
Momo888777	Yes	14.29	14.0%	$2
lozzzi	Yes	13.16	7.6%	$1
Tasty-Doctorate	Yes	12.66	7.9%	$1
SemiColonHero	Yes	12.66	7.9%	$1
allflyer	Yes	11.9	8.4%	$1
Indigo Orbit 7A6E	Yes	11.19	16.8%	$1.88
Noxious-Neighborhood	Yes	10.53	19.0%	$2
jedeckert	Yes	10.2	9.8%	$1
clivearg	Yes	10.1	9.9%	$1
Urania88	Yes	10.1	9.9%	$1
Sudraka	Yes	10	15.0%	$1.5
Bright Signal 14DE	Yes	10	0.1%	$0.01
CloudXKid	Yes	9.35	10.7%	$1
Schillfahrt	Yes	9.17	10.9%	$1
Gbrello	Yes	9.09	11.0%	$1
Fixed-Winter	Yes	8.93	11.2%	$1
ThelastBG	Yes	8.33	12.0%	$1
Yul-Bira	Yes	7.83	30.0%	$2.35
Low-Fortress	Yes	7.63	13.1%	$1
Tidy-Tackle	Yes	7.3	13.7%	$1
Unlined-Doctorate	Yes	7.25	13.8%	$1
Wan-Innocent	Yes	7.25	13.8%	$1
RBBR1	Yes	7.14	14.0%	$1
Saracens7	Yes	7.14	14.0%	$1
lmk259	Yes	6.67	15.0%	$1
HmmHm	Yes	5.88	17.0%	$1
Acclaimed-Sampan	Yes	5.65	17.7%	$1
Reliable-Ambassador	Yes	5.59	17.9%	$1
Cryptostarfleet1	Yes	5	13.4%	$0.67
Meager-Spud	Yes	4.35	23.0%	$1
Shallow-Motorcar	Yes	4	25.0%	$1
DogusY	Yes	3.57	28.0%	$1
13klklas	Yes	3.1	4.3%	$0.13
NoMoreMister	Yes	2.21	0.4%	$0.01
products	Yes	1.61	9.1%	$0.15
asfdt18	Yes	0.98	23.0%	$0.23
EdwardLewis	Yes	0.14	9.1%	$0.01

230 of 230 positions.

Holders by valueThe same holders, ranked by what their position is worth now.

Trader	Holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$129.91K
PX5300	$0.04
RidelFishing	$0.04

Analytics