Analytics
Yes is at 2.5%, down 46 points from 48% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
The high was 48% on 1 May 2026 and the low 2.2% on 15 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 3.1%; a month ago, 2.5%. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 12.5% on 2 May 2026.
It is one of 24 markets under “Who will be arrested before 2027?”.
$230 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $42.52K since listing. The order book holds $38.51K, with a 1.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 304 trades, $1.33K bought Yes and $7.87K bought No; the largest was a $1.86K buy of No at 94.0¢.
The largest Yes position is aenews2 with 2.7K shares; the largest No position is DFK with 5K. Ten wallets hold 87.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 77 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 16, 10:41 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 169 points, 1 May 2026 – 16 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 48.0% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 2.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DFK | No | 4.98K |
| aenews2 | Yes | 2.66K |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 2.12K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027
11 more markets, none above 4.9%.
| DEGENKHAN |
| No |
| 1.87K |
| Polly67 | Yes | 1.36K |
| whippas | Yes | 539.93 |
| Elias.Thornwell | No | 382.48 |
| Anjun | No | 346.39 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 293.41 |
| acc42020 | No | 242.67 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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