Analytics
Yes is at 5%, down 43 points from 48% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 174 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 26 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 55.5% on 16 May 2026 and the lowest 5% on 26 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 8.5%; a month before, 9.5%. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 16% on 21 May 2026.
It is one of 24 markets under “Who will be arrested before 2027?”.
$58.67 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.82K since listing. The order book holds $15.18K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 109 trades, $60.38 bought Yes and $1.29K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Female-Tailbud with 432 shares; the largest No position is predictooooooooor with 301. Ten wallets hold 85.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 68 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 26, 3:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 174 points, 1 May 2026 – 26 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 48.0% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 5.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Female-Tailbud | Yes | 431.76 |
| predictooooooooor | No | 300.73 |
| shiifoo | No | 200.31 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-arrested-before-2027
12 more markets, none above 4.4%.
| macrosteaks | No | 168.98 |
| AJSV | Yes | 145.04 |
| peakyman | Yes | 82.19 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 70.48 |
| Slow-Exhibit | No | 60 |
| ramc2005 | Yes | 49.97 |
| ghoan | No | 43.13 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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