What is the “GPT-5.4 released by March 5?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: GPT-5.4 released by March 5? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “GPT-5.4 released by...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Mar 5, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.4 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.3, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.5, GPT-5.6, etc would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), reasoning models of the o-series family will…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 149 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 53.0% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Mar 6, 8:19 PM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-5pt4-released-by-march-5) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

GPT-5.4 released by March 5? | Polymarket odds & analytics

Vultaxbeta

Delayed

Analytics

Predictions Analytics

GPT-5.4 released by March 5? | Polymarket odds & analytics | Vultax

Market referencegpt-5pt4-released-by-march-5Updated Mar 6, 2026

Closed

Scheduled close Mar 5, 2026

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Observed Yes 100¢Observed No 0¢

Scheduled close

Mar 5, 2026

Overview Prices Holders Trades

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Mar 6, 2026

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Mar 6, 2026

This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Closed

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

100.0%

The venue reports this market closed, but no resolved outcome is inferred.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

149

Wallets

149

Top 10 share

53%

Yes / No shares

0 / 31.62K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

240

Loaded notional

Reported market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Distortion9000	No	3.33K	2.0%	$3.33K
PXR7	No	3.31K	0.3%	$3.31K	Mar 5, 6:16 PM

GPT-5.4 released by...?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “GPT-5.4 released by March 5?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: GPT-5.4 released by March 5? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “GPT-5.4 released by...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Mar 5, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.4 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.3, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.5, GPT-5.6, etc would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), reasoning models of the o-series family will…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Top holders by valueReturned holders ranked by current holding value. Profit and win rate are unavailable for this sample.

Trader	Current holding value
Distortion9000	$0
PXR7	$0
antilipsi	$0
Divano	$0
nowyaseeme	$0
kahim05	$0
Kjab6	$0
Indigo Pioneer 5B68	$0
Cobalt Comet 5713	$0
Last-Estate	$0
julienaldon	$0
Afifisgoat	$0