Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17?Yes | buy | 7.14 | $0.700 | $5 | Jan 15, 2025 |
 |
| buy |
| 10 |
| $0.300 |
| $3 |
| Jan 15, 2025 |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?No | buy | 25 | $0.080 | $2 | Jan 15, 2025 |
 TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?No | buy | 19.23 | $0.260 | $5 | Jan 15, 2025 |
 Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?No | sell | 5.26 | $0.800 | $4.21 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | buy | 13.51 | $0.370 | $5 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Netanyahu out by 2025?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.350 | $5 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Yes | buy | 8.06 | $0.620 | $5 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Ripple ETF approved in 2025?Yes | buy | 16.95 | $0.590 | $10 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Yes | buy | 17.05 | $0.440 | $7.5 | Jan 14, 2025 |
| TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?No | buy | 12.5 | $0.400 | $5 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Will US gov sell Bitcoin before Trump inauguration?No | sell | 6.75 | $0.917 | $6.19 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Will Trump formally nominate Tulsi Gabbard to the cabinet?Yes | sell | 6.72 | $0.950 | $6.38 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary?No | sell | 7.81 | $0.950 | $7.42 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration?No | sell | 5.88 | $0.968 | $5.69 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?Yes | buy | 38.46 | $0.130 | $5 | Dec 14, 2024 |
 Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before 2025?Yes | buy | 25 | $0.120 | $3 | Dec 12, 2024 |
 Luigi Mangione extradited to New York by December?Yes | buy | 8.33 | $0.240 | $2 | Dec 12, 2024 |
 Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April?Yes | buy | 6.67 | $0.450 | $3 | Dec 12, 2024 |
 Assad public appearance before 2025?No | buy | 3.03 | $0.660 | $2 | Dec 12, 2024 |
| Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?No | buy | 5.26 | $0.570 | $3 | Dec 12, 2024 |
 Will an EU nation recognize Syrian government by March 31?Yes | buy | 4.55 | $0.660 | $3 | Dec 12, 2024 |
 Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31?Yes | buy | 5.17 | $0.580 | $3 | Dec 12, 2024 |
 Will Syria hold national elections before July?Yes | buy | 18.52 | $0.270 | $5 | Dec 12, 2024 |
 South Korean President impeached in 2024?No | sell | 7.14 | $0.130 | $0.93 | Dec 12, 2024 |
 Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?No | buy | 17.24 | $0.290 | $5 | Dec 9, 2024 |
 Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%?Yes | buy | 15.38 | $0.130 | $2 | Dec 8, 2024 |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.140 | $2 | Dec 8, 2024 |
| South Korean President impeached in 2024?Yes | sell | 6.75 | $0.300 | $2.03 | Dec 8, 2024 |
| South Korean President impeached in 2024?No | buy | 7.14 | $0.700 | $5 | Dec 8, 2024 |
 Will Trump eliminate daylight saving time in first 100 days?No | buy | 6.02 | $0.830 | $5 | Dec 8, 2024 |
 Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?No | buy | 8.2 | $0.610 | $5 | Dec 8, 2024 |
 Ethereum above $4,000 on December 13?Yes | buy | 7.27 | $0.550 | $4 | Dec 8, 2024 |
 Will Trump say "DOGE" or "doge" during NBC interview?Yes | buy | 6.45 | $0.310 | $2 | Dec 8, 2024 |
| Will Trump say "Israel" during NBC interview?No | buy | 9.09 | $0.110 | $1 | Dec 8, 2024 |
| Will Trump say "Pete" or "Hegseth" during NBC interview?No | buy | 204.24 | $0.005 | $1 | Dec 8, 2024 |
 Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024?No | buy | 23.81 | $0.210 | $5 | Dec 8, 2024 |
 Calin Georgescu arrested in 2024?Yes | buy | 2.78 | $0.360 | $1 | Dec 8, 2024 |
 Assad leaves Syria before 2025?No | sell | 15.15 | $0.150 | $2.27 | Dec 8, 2024 |
| Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?No | buy | 7.94 | $0.630 | $5 | Dec 7, 2024 |
| Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?Yes | sell | 25 | $0.370 | $9.25 | Dec 7, 2024 |
 Will Joni Ernst be Trump's Defense Secretary?Yes | buy | 118.62 | $0.042 | $5 | Dec 7, 2024 |
 Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?No | buy | 8.77 | $0.570 | $5 | Dec 7, 2024 |
| Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?Yes | sell | 12.5 | $0.430 | $5.38 | Dec 7, 2024 |
| Assad leaves Syria before 2025?No | buy | 15.15 | $0.330 | $5 | Dec 7, 2024 |
 Megaquake in December?Yes | buy | 41.67 | $0.060 | $2.5 | Dec 6, 2024 |
 Will Biden pardon Jim Biden?No | buy | 7.46 | $0.670 | $5 | Dec 6, 2024 |
| Will Trump say "Elon" during NBC interview?No | buy | 4.35 | $0.230 | $1 | Dec 6, 2024 |
| Will Trump say "tariff" 3 or more times during NBC interview?Yes | buy | 1.39 | $0.720 | $1 | Dec 6, 2024 |
 OpenAI Sora public release in 2024?Yes | buy | 2.9 | $0.690 | $2 | Dec 6, 2024 |