Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jan 25, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$3.3M

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jan 25, 2025 UTC

Topic roomTrump and the White House

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 25 Jan 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 95.5%. Yes opened at 80.5% on 14 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 73 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2024 to 25 Jan 2025, the highest close was 95.5% on 25 Jan 2025 and the lowest 18% on 4 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 69.5% on 10 Dec 2024. $3.25M traded over the market's life.

273 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 26, 5:47 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 73 points, 14 Nov 2024 – 25 Jan 2025

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
TimeTraveler	No	11.52K
amanmanha	No	8.76K
Thuggish	No	7.95K

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth is confirmed as Secretary of Defense by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Hegseth’s nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects his nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.