Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 63.5% on 30 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 369 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2024 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 77.5% on 12 Mar 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 43.5% on 9 Aug 2025. $73.75M traded over the market's life.
1,000 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 369 points, 30 Dec 2024 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2024 | 63.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| whts | Yes | 586.21K |
| Bobbyfish | Yes | 459.72K |
| satoshiAncap | Yes | 276.68K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025
| hasanp | Yes | 264.9K |
| elonic | Yes | 240.17K |
| Lyamchik3 | Yes | 231.21K |
| SemyonMarmeladov | Yes | 206.76K |
| tiffanytrump | Yes | 175.38K |
| nosympathy | Yes | 154.41K |
| 1234567890x | Yes | 150.16K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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