Latest trade
Oct 26, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 26, 7:38 PM UTC.
Analytics
RefJ. has made $489.25 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 50 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-10-26 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Oct 26, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 26, 7:38 PM UTC.
$1 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 32 markets; 72.0% were buys. They run from Sep 20, 2026 UTC to Oct 26, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government? | No | 35 | $0.163 | $21.91 | +$16.21 |
 Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?No | buy | 35 | $0.163 | $5.71 | 9h ago |
|
Accepted Polymarket leaderboard snapshot
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-10-26 16:02 UTC
Polymarket public position response
19 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-26 19:38 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-26 19:38 UTC
polymarket positions
51 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-04-07 22:18 UTC
Rank, profit and volume come from Polymarket's leaderboard; positions, the chart and trades are read live. Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $3.39K and losing ones cost $2.27K across the latest 50 settled positions. 50% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $867.38 on “Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?” (Yes); the largest loss, $852.85 on “Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?” (Yes).
It first traded on 10 Nov 2024 and most recently on 26 Oct 2026. It has traded 512 markets. Its open positions are worth $113.2 across 19 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| No |
| 35 |
| $0.217 |
| $21.89 |
| +$14.3 |
| Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government? | Yes | 56 | $0.893 | $20.97 | -$29.03 |
 US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | Yes | 12.07 | $0.580 | $8.09 | +$1.09 |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 42.92 | $0.233 | $6.63 | -$3.37 |
 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 7.35 | $0.680 | $5 | $0 |
 Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027? | Yes | 12.66 | $0.316 | $5 | +$1 |
 Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? | No | 7.14 | $0.420 | $3.82 | +$0.82 |
 Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? | Yes | 8.33 | $0.360 | $3.71 | +$0.71 |
 Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 15.38 | $0.130 | $3.38 | +$1.38 |
 Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 4.84 | $0.620 | $3.29 | +$0.29 |
 Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | Yes | 18.69 | $0.107 | $2.45 | +$0.45 |
 Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 12.66 | $0.158 | $1.85 | -$0.15 |
| Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | Yes | 5.75 | $0.174 | $1.82 | +$0.82 |
 Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 2.6 | $0.384 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
 Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 2.27 | $0.440 | $0.97 | -$0.03 |
 Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 35.72 | $0.070 | $0.55 | -$1.95 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | Yes | 8.35 | $0.180 | $0.54 | -$0.96 |
 Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government? | Yes | 1.73 | $0.290 | $0.18 | -$0.32 |
| buy |
| 35 |
| $0.217 |
| $7.6 |
| 2d ago |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 8.33 | $0.060 | $0.5 | 2d ago |
| Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?Yes | buy | 6.18 | $0.809 | $5 | 2d ago |
| Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?Yes | buy | 5.89 | $0.849 | $5 | 3d ago |
 Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.03 | $0.330 | $1 | 3d ago |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.440 | $2.64 | 3d ago |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?Yes | buy | 15.07 | $0.066 | $1 | 3d ago |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.45 | $0.290 | $1 | 3d ago |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Yes | buy | 12.07 | $0.580 | $7 | 3d ago |
| Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany?No | buy | 7.14 | $0.420 | $3 | 4d ago |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?Yes | buy | 2.25 | $0.444 | $1 | 6d ago |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.57 | $0.280 | $1 | 6d ago |
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 35.71 | $0.018 | $0.64 | 8d ago |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 16.67 | $0.050 | $0.83 | 8d ago |
| Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government?Yes | sell | 5.17 | $0.160 | $0.83 | 16d ago |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes | buy | 4.84 | $0.620 | $3 | 19d ago |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 12.5 | $0.080 | $1 | 20d ago |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 3.13 | $0.320 | $1 | 20d ago |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 9.53 | $0.315 | $3 | 20d ago |
| Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?Yes | buy | 11.15 | $0.897 | $10 | 28d ago |
| Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?Yes | buy | 32.79 | $0.915 | $30 | Sep 26, 2026 UTC |
 Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ETDown | sell | 5 | $0.200 | $1 | Sep 24, 2026 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ETDown | buy | 5 | $0.200 | $1 | Sep 24, 2026 UTC |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes | buy | 2.6 | $0.384 | $1 | Sep 24, 2026 UTC |
 Will Volker Bajus win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?Yes | buy | 33.33 | $0.030 | $1 | Sep 24, 2026 UTC |
| Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government?Yes | buy | 6.9 | $0.290 | $2 | Sep 23, 2026 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 12.66 | $0.158 | $2 | Sep 22, 2026 UTC |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 4.76 | $0.070 | $0.33 | Sep 22, 2026 UTC |
| Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Yes | buy | 18.69 | $0.107 | $2 | Sep 22, 2026 UTC |
| Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Yes | buy | 5.75 | $0.174 | $1 | Sep 22, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes | buy | 7.35 | $0.680 | $5 | Sep 22, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes | buy | 2.27 | $0.440 | $1 | Sep 22, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes | buy | 15.38 | $0.130 | $2 | Sep 22, 2026 UTC |
| Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?Yes | buy | 8.33 | $0.360 | $3 | Sep 21, 2026 UTC |
 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?Under | buy | 21.04 | $0.950 | $20 | Sep 21, 2026 UTC |
| Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?Under | buy | 52.63 | $0.950 | $50 | Sep 21, 2026 UTC |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 4.35 | $0.230 | $1 | Sep 20, 2026 UTC |
 Will Linke win between 8% and 11% of all valid second votes?Yes | sell | 8.29 | $0.003 | $0.02 | Sep 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes?Yes | sell | 28.91 | $0.002 | $0.06 | Sep 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?Yes | sell | 8.84 | $0.003 | $0.03 | Sep 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.011 | $0.11 | Sep 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will AfD win less than 14% of all valid second votes?Yes | sell | 5.26 | $0.003 | $0.02 | Sep 20, 2026 UTC |
| Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?Over | sell | 20 | $0.002 | $0.04 | Sep 20, 2026 UTC |
| Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?Over | sell | 5 | $0.010 | $0.05 | Sep 20, 2026 UTC |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 4 | $0.250 | $1 | Sep 20, 2026 UTC |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 4.76 | $0.210 | $1 | Sep 20, 2026 UTC |
| Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?Over | sell | 5 | $0.070 | $0.35 | Sep 20, 2026 UTC |
| Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?Over | buy | 10 | $0.050 | $0.5 | Sep 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will AfD win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.033 | $0.33 | Sep 20, 2026 UTC |
Placed on fixed scales: no Radar board ranking was cached on this server when the profile was read, so no archetype is claimed. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.