Analytics
“Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?” is a world prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading ended on Sep 21, 2026 UTC and the venue has not yet reported a resolution. The last observed Yes price was 91.7¢ (91.7% implied). The outcome will be settled by the resolution source; until then the state is shown as awaiting resolution, not as resolved.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 45 daily price points from Aug 21, 2026 UTC to Oct 3, 2026 UTC (Yes between 83.3% and 96.5%); 14 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 98.9% of the loaded shares; 21 recent public fills from 14 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-next-berlin-state-government
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 45 points · 21 Aug 2026 – 3 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 80%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | 87.5% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | 91.7% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sucuk-mit-ei | Yes | 325.37 |
| fiter | No | 229.37 |
| krtek-a-bobr | Yes |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 122.59 |
| AJSV | No | 93.78 |
| Numitus1994 | No | 51.08 |
| hochnaesigezicke | No | 51.02 |
| chessplayer | Yes | 41 |
| 2B9S | No | 21 |
| title1 | No | 21 |
| Interesting-Rehospitalization | No | 15.14 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
