Analytics
Trading ended on 21 Sep 2026 with Yes at 52%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 67 daily closes on record from 21 Aug 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 86.5% on 31 Aug 2026 and the lowest 30% on 6 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 77%; a month before, 74.5%. Its largest one-day move was 37 points up, to 81.5% on 21 Sep 2026.
It is one of 8 markets under “Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?”.
$11.14K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is Jade Quasar B501 with 589 shares; the largest No position is vinii with 766. Ten wallets hold 73.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 28, 5:38 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 67 points, 21 Aug 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | 57.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 52.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| vinii | No | 765.67 |
| Jade Quasar B501 | Yes | 589.28 |
| chocolatepudding | No | 438.35 |
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-next-berlin-state-government
| RS2004 |
| Yes |
| 201.87 |
| ProvidingExitLiq | Yes | 201 |
| sucuk-mit-ei | Yes | 193.5 |
| ElonJail | Yes | 183.8 |
| Darling-Eurocentrism-Stepbrother | Yes | 152.19 |
| Elastic-Tanktop | Yes | 138.89 |
| hochnaesigezicke | No | 120 |
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