Analytics
Trading ended on 21 Sep 2026 with Yes at 79.5%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
The high was 96.5% on 22 Sep 2026 and the low 73.7% on 23 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 93.6%; a month ago, 89%. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 73.7% on 23 Sep 2026.
It is one of 8 markets under “Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?”.
$4.82K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is sucuk-mit-ei with 1.4K shares; the largest No position is Darling-Eurocentrism-Stepbrother with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 90% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 10, 3:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 52 points · 21 Aug 2026 – 10 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | 85.0% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | 79.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sucuk-mit-ei | Yes | 1.4K |
| Darling-Eurocentrism-Stepbrother | No | 1.17K |
| fiter | No | 500 |
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-next-berlin-state-government
| FrozenUSDC | No | 303.02 |
| maddestcircus | Yes | 220.05 |
| TypeShi | Yes | 175.22 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 105 |
| SimSalabim | Yes | 99 |
| EconomistOx | Yes | 91.13 |
| Polyscam | Yes | 70 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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