Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?

worldResolved

Under, settled Sep 30, 2026 UTC

Over

0.0%

Under

100.0%

Final Over 0¢Final Under 100¢

Lifetime volume

$135.7K

Resolved

Under

Settled

Sep 30, 2026 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved Under on 30 Sep 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Under at 99.8%. The Over side opened at 72.5% on 11 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 11 Sep 2026 to 30 Sep 2026, the highest close was 84.5% on 16 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 24 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 79 points down, to 0.7% on 21 Sep 2026. $135.72K traded over the market's life.

85 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Over price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 11 Sep 2026 – 30 Sep 2026

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
a.weidel	Over	18.17K
LAVegas	Over	13.95K
SomeoneAnywhere	Over	3K
JuliusNakamoto	Over	2.15K

10 of 85 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-cdu-over-under-5-percent

Dates

Event starts

Topic room