Analytics
Yes is at 22.5%, down 2.5 points from 25% when the market opened on 26 Jun 2026.
Across the 122 daily closes on record from 26 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 33.8% on 27 Oct 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 8 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 29.9%; a month before, 22.4%. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 9% on 1 Jul 2026.
≤46 and ≤192 ranks second of the 13 outcomes in “How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?”. 47–49 and 193–207 leads at 27.8%; 47–49 and ≤192 is at 20.6%.
$2.29K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $22.23K since listing. The order book holds $18.88K, with a 0.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 498 trades, $1.89K bought Yes and $8.77K bought No.
The largest Yes position is g128 with 4.6K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 6.3K. Ten wallets hold 84.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 122 points, 26 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Jun 2026 | 25.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 22.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 6.34K |
| g128 | Yes | 4.57K |
| Golftango | Yes | 1.79K |
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of the Republican Party’s seat count in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing:
1 more outcome, none above 0.5%.
| vyemfql |
| No |
| 1.63K |
| conherence | No | 1.35K |
| Crimson Scout DF5C | No | 1.17K |
| AxelTapper | Yes | 1.14K |
| Which-Trade | No | 779.94 |
| GayPride | Yes | 743.1 |
| RadioCCOD | Yes | 592.85 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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