Latest trade
Oct 18, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 26, 7:07 AM UTC.
Analytics
michaelcarlson is down $14.76 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 50 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-10-22 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Oct 18, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 26, 7:07 AM UTC.
$15.16 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 44 markets; 96.0% were buys. They run from Mar 29, 2025 UTC to Oct 18, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? | Yes | 32.47 | $0.670 | $16.88 | -$4.87 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on October 19?No | buy | 17.15 | $0.550 | $9.43 | 7d ago |
|
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-10-22 08:13 UTC
Polymarket public position response
1 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-26 07:07 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-26 07:07 UTC
polymarket positions
52 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-10-22 08:13 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $109.65 and losing ones cost $93.24 across the latest 50 settled positions. 56% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $70.48 on “Broncos vs. Chargers” (Chargers); the largest loss, $20.82 on “Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14?” (No).
Its most recent trade on record was on 18 Oct 2026. It has traded 85 markets. Its open positions are worth $16.88 across 1 market.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| buy |
| 4.44 |
| $0.550 |
| $2.44 |
| 7d ago |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on October 19?No | buy | 10 | $0.550 | $5.5 | 7d ago |
 Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 15?No | buy | 17.86 | $0.850 | $15.18 | 11d ago |
 Broncos vs. Cardinals: O/U 52.5Over | buy | 54.96 | $0.370 | $20.34 | 11d ago |
| Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?Yes | buy | 23.47 | $0.670 | $15.72 | 18d ago |
| Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.670 | $6.03 | 18d ago |
 Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 October 5-11?No | buy | 14.95 | $0.903 | $13.5 | 18d ago |
 Korea Open: Yexin Ma vs Kimberly BirrellKimberly Birrell | buy | 28.12 | $0.670 | $18.84 | Sep 24, 2026 UTC |
 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 28?Yes | buy | 21.27 | $0.530 | $11.27 | Sep 24, 2026 UTC |
 Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?No | buy | 20 | $0.900 | $18 | Sep 3, 2026 UTC |
| Will "Wildchild" - Alex Warren first week album sales be between 70k and 90k?Yes | buy | 33.54 | $0.920 | $30.86 | Sep 2, 2026 UTC |
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 15.27 | $0.945 | $14.43 | Aug 27, 2026 UTC |
 Will Lighter dip to $1.00 in January?No | buy | 8.46 | $0.999 | $8.45 | Jan 31, 2026 UTC |
 Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January?No | buy | 9.47 | $0.998 | $9.45 | Jan 30, 2026 UTC |
 Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No | buy | 21.99 | $0.998 | $21.95 | Jan 30, 2026 UTC |
 Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in January?No | buy | 36.66 | $0.999 | $36.62 | Jan 30, 2026 UTC |
 US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?No | buy | 9.88 | $0.998 | $9.86 | Dec 30, 2025 UTC |
 Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31?No | buy | 6.18 | $0.998 | $6.17 | Dec 30, 2025 UTC |
 Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025?No | buy | 8.92 | $0.998 | $8.9 | Dec 30, 2025 UTC |
| Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025?No | buy | 33.09 | $0.998 | $33.02 | Dec 29, 2025 UTC |
 Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?No | buy | 18.34 | $0.993 | $18.21 | Dec 29, 2025 UTC |
| Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October?No | buy | 18.38 | $0.993 | $18.25 | Oct 30, 2025 UTC |
| Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October?No | buy | 22.68 | $0.997 | $22.61 | Oct 30, 2025 UTC |
 Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on September 30?No | buy | 15.18 | $0.997 | $15.13 | Sep 29, 2025 UTC |
 Will Meta have the second best AI model on September 30?No | buy | 12.5 | $0.999 | $12.49 | Sep 29, 2025 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September?No | buy | 19.61 | $0.999 | $19.59 | Sep 29, 2025 UTC |
 Will XRP dip to $1.80 in September?No | buy | 10.9 | $0.999 | $10.89 | Sep 29, 2025 UTC |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September?No | buy | 13.19 | $0.999 | $13.18 | Sep 28, 2025 UTC |
 Netanyahu out by August 31?No | buy | 10.85 | $0.999 | $10.84 | Aug 31, 2025 UTC |
 Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 13.98 | $0.998 | $13.95 | Aug 31, 2025 UTC |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?No | buy | 14.17 | $0.999 | $14.16 | Aug 30, 2025 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?No | buy | 13.04 | $0.999 | $13.03 | Aug 30, 2025 UTC |
 Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August?No | buy | 23.09 | $0.990 | $22.86 | Jul 28, 2025 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July?No | buy | 24.35 | $0.999 | $24.33 | Jul 28, 2025 UTC |
| Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August?No | buy | 27.19 | $0.989 | $26.89 | Jul 28, 2025 UTC |
 Will India invade Pakistan before July?No | buy | 24.81 | $0.999 | $24.79 | Jun 30, 2025 UTC |
 Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion?No | sell | 2.54K | $0.993 | $2.52K | May 12, 2025 UTC |
| Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion?No | buy | 2.54K | $0.997 | $2.53K | May 6, 2025 UTC |
 Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025?No | sell | 2.54K | $0.998 | $2.54K | May 6, 2025 UTC |
| Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025?No | buy | 2.54K | $0.999 | $2.54K | May 5, 2025 UTC |
 Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30?No | buy | 16.88 | $0.998 | $16.85 | Apr 20, 2025 UTC |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30?No | buy | 18.29 | $0.994 | $18.18 | Apr 19, 2025 UTC |
 Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Labrador in the next Canadian Election?No | buy | 17.11 | $0.998 | $17.08 | Apr 10, 2025 UTC |
 Will the Green Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?No | buy | 11.58 | $0.999 | $11.57 | Apr 10, 2025 UTC |
 Will the People's party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?No | buy | 14.43 | $0.999 | $14.42 | Apr 10, 2025 UTC |
| Will Elon tweet 325-349 times April 4 - 11?No | buy | 16.08 | $0.998 | $16.05 | Apr 10, 2025 UTC |
 Was JFK assassination an inside job?No | buy | 2.36 | $0.998 | $2.36 | Mar 30, 2025 UTC |
 Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31?No | buy | 4.56 | $0.999 | $4.56 | Mar 30, 2025 UTC |
 Was JFK assassinated by a foreign government?No | buy | 2.06 | $0.998 | $2.06 | Mar 29, 2025 UTC |
2 of 4 axes ranked against the 121 wallets on the Radar board (crypto positions observed 2026-09-20); the others stay on fixed scales, as each axis says. Not drawn for this wallet: 4 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.