Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 24 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 69 daily closes on record from 24 Apr 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 29.5% on 28 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 13.5% on 1 May 2025. $1.97M traded over the market's life.
313 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 69 points, 24 Apr 2025 – 1 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Apr 2025 | 9.5% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rdunjgiofnuei | Yes | 32.7K |
| restart | Yes | 17.35K |
| EGbest | Yes | 5.03K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if India commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Pakistan between April 23 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by India or Pakistan as of April 23, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by India, Pakistan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-india-invade-pakistan-before-june
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