Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August?

Resolved

No, settled Aug 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$61.1K

Resolved

Settled

Aug 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 47% on 9 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 24 daily closes on record from 9 Jul 2025 to 1 Aug 2025, the highest close was 47% on 9 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 28.5% on 12 Jul 2025. $61.1K traded over the market's life.

51 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 8:53 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 9 Jul 2025 – 1 Aug 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
9 Jul 2025	47.0%
1 Aug 2025	0.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Krimppa	Yes	1.17K
qspec	No	1.01K
sergiomondaca	Yes	970.67
MagicTheGreat	Yes	744.84

10 of 51 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Grok-4 has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed modeI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.