Analytics
Paper trading
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 46% on 6 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 46% on 6 Jan 2026 and the low 0.6% on 31 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 42 points down, to 4% on 7 Jan 2026. $17.54K traded over the market's life.
32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 8:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 6 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 46.0% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Tryingsohard | Yes | 634.99 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 499.99 |
| acal | Yes | 486.55 |
| forge38 | Yes | 420.75 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
What price will Lighter hit in January?
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-lighter-hit-in-january
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 300.9 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 246.92 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 219.88 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 200.98 |
| midushan | Yes | 134 |
| yidenggan | Yes | 107.22 |