Will the US strike Iran next?

Name: Will the US strike Iran next? — implied probability history
License: https://vultax.com/legal/terms

Resolved

No · settled Jan 11, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.6M

Resolved

Settled

Jan 11, 2026 UTC

Positions left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.55M	0.0%	$0
duderr	Yes	471.55K	50.0%	$235.78K	Jan 10, 9:47 PM UTC
Silver Beacon B26F	Yes	100K	0.1%	$100	Jan 10, 11:23 PM UTC
maheart	Yes	100K	0.1%	$100	Jan 11, 12:30 AM UTC
JaidenAnimations	Yes	69.81K	0.0%	$0	Jan 10, 10:19 PM UTC
FumCace123	Yes	51.34K	0.1%	$51.34	Jan 11, 12:05 AM UTC
Best-Rocketship	Yes	39.43K	0.1%	$39.43	Jan 11, 12:50 AM UTC
conilio	Yes	28.05K	0.2%	$59.98	Jan 10, 11:07 PM UTC
kamtheman	Yes	22K	0.1%	$22	Jan 11, 1:02 AM UTC
Bronze-Worship	Yes	20K	0.1%	$20	Jan 11, 12:30 AM UTC
Paner	Yes	17K	0.3%	$51	Jan 10, 9:27 PM UTC
Mediocre-Assertion	Yes	14.18K	0.1%	$14.18	Jan 11, 12:59 AM UTC
ailhw696969	Yes	10K	0.1%	$10	Jan 11, 12:58 AM UTC
Iscreaman	Yes	8.92K	1.1%	$99.99	Jan 10, 9:14 PM UTC
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	7.67K	0.0%	$0	Jan 10, 10:00 PM UTC
Coral Lynx A835	Yes	7K	0.1%	$7	Jan 11, 12:57 AM UTC
Kallemkalle	Yes	6.48K	0.1%	$6.48	Jan 11, 12:30 AM UTC
flyhawk	Yes	6.05K	0.5%	$27.82	Jan 10, 9:16 PM UTC
Rosy-Spelt	Yes	6.02K	0.3%	$21	Jan 10, 9:42 PM UTC
Outgoing-Planning	Yes	5.98K	0.1%	$9	Jan 10, 11:47 PM UTC
Possible-Kielbasa	Yes	5.06K	0.3%	$15	Jan 11, 12:02 AM UTC
Mean-Annual	Yes	4.93K	0.2%	$9.85	Jan 10, 10:57 PM UTC
DBjumperr	Yes	4.39K	4.7%	$205.89
Ddddddddddd555555	Yes	4.16K	0.7%	$30	Jan 10, 9:31 PM UTC
Little-Saint-James.	Yes	4K	0.1%	$4	Jan 11, 12:31 AM UTC
Vickyvall	Yes	3.41K	0.9%	$31	Jan 10, 8:45 PM UTC
Pivko	Yes	3K	0.1%	$3	Jan 11, 12:55 AM UTC
GiniSat	Yes	3K	0.1%	$3	Jan 11, 12:27 AM UTC
Basic-Surgeon	Yes	3K	0.3%	$10	Jan 10, 9:26 PM UTC
rafunkel	Yes	3K	0.1%	$3	Jan 11, 12:08 AM UTC
Acidic-Photography	Yes	2.82K	10.5%	$296.64
Staffan	Yes	2.52K	0.9%	$22	Jan 10, 9:16 PM UTC
tropi1	Yes	2.34K	0.4%	$10	Jan 10, 9:12 PM UTC
zizix	Yes	2.33K	4.3%	$100
Daniel96	Yes	2.03K	0.2%	$4	Jan 10, 10:51 PM UTC
bobloblob	Yes	2K	0.1%	$2	Jan 11, 1:01 AM UTC
moreno123	Yes	2K	0.1%	$2	Jan 11, 12:56 AM UTC
Wooden-Umbrella	Yes	2K	0.1%	$2	Jan 10, 11:54 PM UTC
Rusty-Salesman	Yes	1.89K	8.1%	$152.83
Silver Raven 6EC6	Yes	1.89K	1.1%	$20	Jan 10, 9:18 PM UTC
Affectionate-Hospital	Yes	1.88K	1.1%	$20	Jan 10, 9:15 PM UTC
Those-Smelting	Yes	1.86K	0.1%	$1.86	Jan 11, 12:14 AM UTC
bonghittransplant	Yes	1.75K	0.1%	$1.75	Jan 11, 12:08 AM UTC
Wakasaby	Yes	1.74K	8.0%	$140
Bright Voyager 2404	Yes	1.4K	0.5%	$7	Jan 10, 9:50 PM UTC
Reckless-Form	Yes	1.32K	0.2%	$2.6	Jan 11, 12:52 AM UTC
Bold Kestrel 742E	Yes	1.25K	0.4%	$5	Jan 10, 10:00 PM UTC
TTPO	Yes	1.18K	2.1%	$25	Jan 10, 8:33 PM UTC
MasonsConqueredRome	Yes	1.02K	0.0%	$0
plzwork	Yes	1.01K	0.5%	$5	Jan 10, 9:49 PM UTC
Frilly-Brick	Yes	1K	0.3%	$3	Jan 10, 10:08 PM UTC
Silver Falcon 824D	Yes	1K	0.3%	$3	Jan 10, 10:10 PM UTC
Scratchy-Screw	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 11, 12:37 AM UTC
Unwritten-Stallion	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 11, 12:55 AM UTC
New-Trigonometry	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 11, 12:20 AM UTC
TacticalInsiderNews	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 11, 12:04 AM UTC
Juvenile-Disguise	Yes	1K	0.4%	$4	Jan 10, 10:15 PM UTC
Medium-Transportation	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 10, 10:44 PM UTC
Late-Cantaloupe	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 11, 12:16 AM UTC
Diligent-Roller	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 11, 12:25 AM UTC
krestx	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 10, 11:58 PM UTC
danmed	Yes	1K	12.8%	$127.86
Determined-Conifer	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 11, 12:27 AM UTC
Elbekjohnny	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 11, 12:38 AM UTC
Alvarix	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 11, 12:59 AM UTC
Witty-Journalism	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 11, 12:48 AM UTC
octavioPaz	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 11, 12:58 AM UTC
Honest-Drag	Yes	950	0.2%	$1.9	Jan 10, 10:28 PM UTC
dmnoon	Yes	901.49	1.3%	$11.4	Jan 10, 9:09 PM UTC
SilentEdge	Yes	825.7	24.2%	$200
Bitcoin.33	Yes	642.86	7.0%	$45
Yohaa	Yes	629.41	2.5%	$16	Jan 10, 8:39 PM UTC
ChristineWalker7354	Yes	611	27.0%	$164.97
Unnatural-Ride	Yes	600	8.7%	$52.2
Early-Argument	Yes	575	0.4%	$2.3	Jan 10, 8:54 PM UTC
Thinkat	Yes	574.09	0.5%	$3	Jan 10, 10:46 PM UTC
Wiry-Merchant	Yes	541.04	8.3%	$45
zAxerall	Yes	532.63	0.4%	$2	Jan 10, 9:25 PM UTC
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	511	0.1%	$0.51
auroramw	Yes	507.46	19.7%	$100
Vigorous-Massage	Yes	500	0.2%	$1	Jan 10, 8:47 PM UTC
Magnificent-Windage	Yes	500	0.4%	$2	Jan 10, 9:28 PM UTC
Bearballs	Yes	500	0.2%	$1	Jan 10, 9:55 PM UTC
TENETENET	Yes	500	0.1%	$0.5
Repentant-Turnip	Yes	465.72	19.3%	$90.09
Revolving-Acoustics	Yes	414.75	4.8%	$19.9
gabigrin	Yes	377.91	5.3%	$20
Silver Ledger 5222	Yes	348.48	2.0%	$7	Jan 10, 8:38 PM UTC
JamesGorson	Yes	345.98	8.1%	$28
imniros	Yes	345.38	2.9%	$10	Jan 10, 9:20 PM UTC
Ejecutor	Yes	333.33	0.3%	$1	Jan 10, 10:17 PM UTC
flow-trader-at-optiver	Yes	294.93	0.0%	$0	Jan 10, 8:42 PM UTC
Bold Scout BD7E	Yes	266	0.1%	$0.27
Prof.iminari	Yes	250	0.4%	$0.95	Jan 10, 10:08 PM UTC
Loose-Minor	Yes	250	0.4%	$1	Jan 10, 8:45 PM UTC
Crimson Vector F03A	Yes	241	0.1%	$0.24
Crimson Falcon C79A	Yes	233	0.1%	$0.23
gptheman	Yes	222.74	13.0%	$29
Flippant-Discrimination	Yes	205.7	12.2%	$25
rated	Yes	204.6	0.0%	$0.07	Jan 10, 9:03 PM UTC
Tavo41	Yes	200	0.4%	$0.8	Jan 10, 9:28 PM UTC
Murky-Tax	Yes	199.99	11.3%	$22.6
Razc12	Yes	184.78	2.7%	$5	Jan 10, 9:19 PM UTC
Berto1	Yes	180.95	11.1%	$20
systemix	Yes	179.59	11.1%	$20
Bold Orbit 37E9	Yes	163.74	10.2%	$16.62
Lcara0319	Yes	159.32	3.1%	$5	Jan 10, 9:02 PM UTC
Emerald Pioneer D14A	Yes	157	0.1%	$0.16
Za-Za	Yes	149.99	7.0%	$10.5
Attentive-Rhyme	Yes	147.12	0.2%	$0.33	Jan 10, 9:50 PM UTC
egonzalez7	Yes	135.91	7.3%	$9.87
M0007	Yes	130.88	8.4%	$11
Absolute-Carol	Yes	126.85	7.9%	$10
Steel-Tank	Yes	125	8.0%	$10
JoseEnglish8339	Yes	111	11.0%	$12.21
Bleak-Ghost	Yes	110.76	4.4%	$4.92
Jade Harbor B075	Yes	101	0.1%	$0.1
Ruiziness	Yes	100	16.0%	$15.97
CLV1289	Yes	100	17.0%	$17
StefanP011	Yes	100	10.7%	$10.7
Deafening-Possible	Yes	99.99	0.1%	$0.1
hurz	Yes	98.52	20.3%	$20
Liamyxy	Yes	97.85	0.1%	$0.1
liamyxy2	Yes	97.85	0.1%	$0.1
Wiggly-Amenity	Yes	95.08	10.5%	$10
Seque	Yes	94.13	5.3%	$5
Dolev1303	Yes	89.12	7.8%	$7
abdelhakes	Yes	87.5	8.0%	$7
Monk1411	Yes	86.58	7.7%	$6.7
joebniden	Yes	70	26.0%	$18.2
bbcat	Yes	66.09	22.7%	$15
cassandra	Yes	62.88	8.0%	$5
creamminal	Yes	62.05	8.1%	$5
ccatheri	Yes	59.44	5.0%	$3
Downright-Fahrenheit	Yes	54.55	22.0%	$12
Miserly-Cape	Yes	50	1.8%	$0.9
Bighorseguy	Yes	45.56	18.0%	$8.2
Impassioned-Dissemination	Yes	43.47	11.5%	$5
Caline	Yes	38.46	10.4%	$4
Linear-Astrakhan	Yes	36.59	8.2%	$3
Mito12345	Yes	28.36	17.6%	$5
PhilipHoyas	Yes	26.32	3.8%	$1
itsjustcheddar	Yes	25	0.0%	$0	Jan 10, 8:36 PM UTC
mickeyB	Yes	25	12.5%	$3.13
Empty-Bladder	Yes	24.98	10.5%	$2.63
Rough-Analog	Yes	24.69	8.1%	$2
Gentle-Procurement	Yes	24.61	20.3%	$5
k2n	Yes	22.73	22.0%	$5
stormbird	Yes	22.32	22.4%	$5
Marvelous-Orange	Yes	20.4	24.5%	$5
llongbo	Yes	20	20.0%	$4
winstonhwd	Yes	20	12.1%	$2.42
Witty-Farming	Yes	19.61	20.4%	$4
Huge-Humidity	Yes	19.05	21.0%	$4
Ornery-Bottle	Yes	18.35	10.9%	$2
Stark-Mining	Yes	18.02	11.1%	$2
Gaboarz	Yes	16.67	18.0%	$3
triklozoid	Yes	14.99	0.1%	$0.01
Grumpy-Pit	Yes	14.67	6.8%	$1
leiden.eth	Yes	13.68	7.6%	$1.04
YYY1YYY	Yes	13.51	7.4%	$1
cfzy99	Yes	13.36	22.4%	$3
Tedious-Cap	Yes	12.82	7.8%	$1
neony	Yes	12.5	8.0%	$1
rmngod	Yes	12.35	8.1%	$1
Cosmic Vector CD57	Yes	11.62	8.6%	$1
Velvety-Sweatshop	Yes	11.49	8.7%	$1
Ultimus1	Yes	11.11	9.0%	$1
Qualified-Navigation	Yes	10	20.0%	$2
akrista	Yes	10	17.0%	$1.7
Beautiful-Omnivore	Yes	10	20.0%	$2
winwinyes	Yes	9.09	11.0%	$1
Disastrous-Pepperoni	Yes	7	20.0%	$1.4
Slight-Ambiguity	Yes	5.88	17.0%	$1
Funnyboo	Yes	5.26	19.0%	$1
ryanwcoleman	Yes	5	20.0%	$1
oak	Yes	4.45	3.3%	$0.15
Anchored-Jam	Yes	4.35	23.0%	$1
Goofthemoose	Yes	3.57	28.0%	$1
OZRENY	Yes	3.03	33.0%	$1

180 of 180 positions.

Holders by valueThe same holders, ranked by what their position is worth now.

Trader	Holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$1.55M
PX5300	$0.09
.jeet	$0.05

Analytics