Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Name: Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? — implied probability history
License: https://vultax.com/legal/terms

Resolved

No, settled Jun 19, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.5M

Resolved

Settled

Jun 19, 2026 UTC

Positions left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
kishco	Yes	952.2K	23.3%	$218.7K
Indigo Signal 2966	No	866.67K	0.0%	$0
garyeats	Yes	32.56K	20.0%	$6.31K
BluesRz246312	Yes	15.42K	12.4%	$1.88K	Jun 18, 4:58 PM UTC
LONGLIFE11	Yes	13.98K	14.0%	$1.91K
Utter-Stamina-Preference	Yes	3.15K	13.5%	$410
Mammoth-Man	Yes	3.04K	34.5%	$1.02K
Bened1ctus	Yes	2.78K	15.5%	$416.33
VICTORMELDREW	Yes	2.74K	16.5%	$438.87
Misty Oracle 1D32	Yes	2.65K	21.8%	$555
Fabulous-Tailbud	Yes	2K	26.8%	$520
nelbal8486	Yes	2K	23.7%	$460
Poontanggang	Yes	1.95K	21.1%	$400
Neon Maven 4F12	Yes	1.85K	18.9%	$336.79	Jun 18, 10:47 PM UTC
difrisco	Yes	1.8K	16.5%	$288
Fast-Reliability	Yes	1.51K	2.1%	$30	Jun 19, 12:46 AM UTC
HungryBear929	Yes	1.39K	21.7%	$292
TRADER420	Yes	1.3K	26.0%	$337.99
peepeepooppoop	Yes	1.28K	29.1%	$374.11
WickRick	Yes	1.27K	19.6%	$241.41
fedp	Yes	1.12K	9.3%	$100	Jun 18, 11:01 PM UTC
Forthright-Armpit	Yes	1.04K	7.1%	$72	Jun 18, 10:04 PM UTC
Pastel-Brass	Yes	1.02K	13.7%	$135
maxrg	Yes	999.88	32.6%	$317.21
OfficerLahey27	Yes	957.73	11.4%	$105.35	Jun 18, 9:37 AM UTC
TrueDignity	Yes	800	5.2%	$40	Jun 18, 4:55 PM UTC
Homely-Lament-Yurt	Yes	733.85	13.5%	$95.4
InsiderRadar.io	Yes	693.6	19.8%	$132.8
ufyjgkughoih	Yes	630.75	32.6%	$200
Theturtle	Yes	577.88	16.5%	$92.46
Emerald Pioneer D430	Yes	502.96	2.1%	$10	Jun 19, 1:00 AM UTC
markcuriouscryptos	Yes	500	15.5%	$75
db123	Yes	500	11.8%	$55	Jun 18, 9:49 AM UTC
QMTRADR	Yes	499.87	12.3%	$59.49	Jun 18, 10:34 AM UTC
superjelly40	Yes	498.61	22.7%	$109.69
Ivory Atlas 6A0C	Yes	489.99	19.0%	$93.1
Tigresx	Yes	433.33	15.5%	$65
Snowmantam	Yes	416.67	24.7%	$100
Cobalt Ledger C9D8	Yes	400	28.8%	$112
77895	Yes	370.37	27.8%	$100
Quick-Networking	Yes	357	19.6%	$67.83
Walkin.eth	Yes	354.81	27.8%	$95.8
alexalex111	Yes	344.6	12.0%	$39.89	Jun 18, 8:15 AM UTC
cry.eth2	Yes	337.36	3.0%	$10.22
Fattytuna	Yes	335	34.4%	$112.35
Swift Meteor 48D0	Yes	333.33	15.6%	$50
keldk	Yes	332.9	30.9%	$100
ChunXiang.AI	Yes	327.87	16.5%	$52.42
BigDog91	Yes	309.52	21.7%	$65
Bobillion	Yes	269.86	7.3%	$18.89	Jun 18, 6:47 PM UTC
stormbird	Yes	250.11	40.6%	$99.26
Evergreen-Supreme	Yes	244.65	18.4%	$43.5	Jun 18, 9:03 AM UTC
Philotimo	Yes	238.1	21.7%	$50
Moist-Machine	Yes	218.18	9.5%	$20	Jun 18, 3:17 PM UTC
Algarve2026	Yes	216.23	25.8%	$54.9
Embarrassed-Troop	Yes	214.77	30.8%	$64.43
zhkevin0111	Yes	200	27.8%	$54
Kenshilo1026	Yes	200	11.0%	$22
Keir-Starmer	Yes	200	26.8%	$52
billybob182	Yes	200	20.6%	$40
ginkoman	Yes	194.92	27.3%	$51.76
LIN2437	Yes	180	11.0%	$19.8
GENE1ZA	Yes	179.31	29.3%	$51
MelianRules	Yes	171.45	29.8%	$49.72
mrx-pm-trade	Yes	162.5	16.5%	$26
Worried-Phenotype	Yes	158.15	13.1%	$20
Vigorous-Extreme	Yes	133.33	30.8%	$40
Droogg	Yes	122.88	6.7%	$8	Jun 19, 1:45 AM UTC
scale.biz	Yes	119.05	14.8%	$17
siffy	Yes	118.57	2.6%	$3	Jun 19, 1:22 AM UTC
monomarche	Yes	117.94	17.5%	$20
Awful-Peripheral	Yes	115.38	13.5%	$15
Corny-Transition	Yes	114.44	9.0%	$10	Jun 18, 12:30 PM UTC
Cape-Town	Yes	109.99	8.4%	$8.87	Jun 18, 8:32 PM UTC
samtucker	Yes	109.57	7.3%	$7.67	Jun 18, 3:14 PM UTC
lahsldlw	Yes	108.39	29.4%	$30.98
Half-Impudence	Yes	108.17	12.4%	$12.98
Cluttered-Coach-Potential	Yes	105.73	2.0%	$2	Jun 19, 12:46 AM UTC
Feliciase	Yes	105.43	9.6%	$9.8	Jun 18, 7:26 PM UTC
Zem16	Yes	100	15.5%	$15
TENETENET	Yes	100	0.1%	$0.1
adwervx99	Yes	100	22.7%	$22
ElonTerrorism	Yes	100	20.0%	$20
Trivial-Steam	Yes	100	15.5%	$15
Anon234	Yes	98.61	30.4%	$29.18
Tildaaad	Yes	91.14	10.0%	$8.8	Jun 18, 5:55 PM UTC
diterpene	Yes	90	30.8%	$27
4fee-s3	Yes	88.32	6.0%	$5.3
Lucky-Reprocessing	Yes	84.99	24.3%	$20.67	Jun 19, 4:04 AM UTC
dgthyth	Yes	83.69	13.5%	$11	Jun 18, 5:54 PM UTC
Bsau4	Yes	83.33	24.7%	$20
ssstf	Yes	79.04	14.6%	$11.29	Jun 18, 4:27 PM UTC
fghddfs	Yes	67.8	13.1%	$8.6	Jun 18, 5:46 PM UTC
asw301	Yes	66.67	30.8%	$20
Jizm	Yes	66.67	9.3%	$6	Jun 18, 8:55 PM UTC
Jeremiahehs	Yes	66.43	12.5%	$8.15	Jun 18, 4:28 PM UTC
Chubby-Harm	Yes	63.33	12.2%	$7.5	Jun 18, 6:22 PM UTC
Definite-Hug-Carrier	Yes	63.21	34.6%	$21.29
Violet Maven 5C11	Yes	62.93	31.0%	$18.88
jessicacropley2000	Yes	62.5	32.9%	$20
Pocket9s	Yes	62.5	16.5%	$10
doypiedoyp	Yes	62.5	8.3%	$5	Jun 18, 10:42 PM UTC
amgline	Yes	60.98	40.5%	$24.7
Dereketh	Yes	56.63	17.7%	$9.69	Jun 18, 7:12 AM UTC
Lovelyeer	Yes	56.09	17.7%	$9.62	Jun 18, 7:10 AM UTC
bodoh	Yes	55	25.8%	$13.75
wanderingminstrel	Yes	52.63	19.6%	$10
Direct-Hair	Yes	51.45	30.8%	$15.44
hygjkuf	Yes	51.13	15.3%	$7.6	Jun 18, 4:22 PM UTC
Quixotic-Wash-Folk	Yes	50	24.5%	$12.25
.Menthe	Yes	50	0.1%	$0.05
Wooopsiees	Yes	50	8.3%	$4	Jun 18, 11:22 PM UTC
Tart-Pounding	Yes	49.92	12.4%	$5.99
Vanessase	Yes	49.52	17.7%	$8.5
thepolwinner	Yes	48.39	23.9%	$11.55
Grown-Ruffle	Yes	47.42	12.6%	$5.79
0102692	Yes	46.88	34.2%	$15
154	Yes	46.72	13.3%	$5.99
2424521	Yes	46.08	13.5%	$5.99
Grave-Agriculture	Yes	45.45	11.4%	$5	Jun 18, 9:55 AM UTC
kilolg	Yes	44.35	15.3%	$6.6	Jun 18, 4:31 PM UTC
Hi.exe	Yes	44	25.8%	$11
Kaista	Yes	42.86	14.5%	$6
liulian	Yes	42.45	12.6%	$5.17
Downright-Solidity	Yes	42.05	29.3%	$12
lisalisasa	Yes	40.38	13.5%	$5.25
liufeierin	Yes	40.38	13.5%	$5.25
Quincy00	Yes	40.38	13.5%	$5.25
clementime0	Yes	40.38	13.5%	$5.25
vivianer	Yes	40.38	13.5%	$5.25
jackwawa	Yes	40.38	13.5%	$5.25
josephinera	Yes	40.38	13.5%	$5.25
liqingqin	Yes	40.38	13.5%	$5.25
Spencer9	Yes	40.38	13.5%	$5.25
Dariuser	Yes	40.38	13.5%	$5.25
Fieryrrs	Yes	39.76	19.5%	$7.5
Sunny-Course	Yes	39	11.4%	$4.29	Jun 18, 9:35 AM UTC
joakja2008	Yes	38.42	26.8%	$9.99
Admired-Waiter	Yes	37.69	13.5%	$4.9
getfee-s1	Yes	37.58	8.0%	$3.01
Grown-Fawn	Yes	37.04	27.8%	$10
HappyFunTimeLarry	Yes	37.04	27.8%	$10
supermaster21	Yes	35.71	28.8%	$10
521	Yes	35	17.7%	$6
4612	Yes	35	17.7%	$6
lfp58	Yes	31.46	27.8%	$8.49
Key-Part	Yes	31.25	16.5%	$5
0x07CD	Yes	31.19	16.5%	$4.99
Swift Raven 390A	Yes	30	1.6%	$0.47
6944	Yes	29.03	21.3%	$6
AnDD-704	Yes	29.02	21.3%	$6
3742	Yes	29.02	21.3%	$6
9865	Yes	29.02	21.3%	$6
paidinfull2000	Yes	28.57	7.3%	$2	Jun 18, 8:03 PM UTC
Lucifer1	Yes	26.21	34.9%	$8.91
bingo0	Yes	26.06	23.7%	$5.99
Altomelto	Yes	24.59	41.6%	$10
mmiol	Yes	24.35	23.7%	$5.6
kkoo-248	Yes	23.85	25.5%	$5.9
muui	Yes	23.85	25.5%	$5.9
doudo	Yes	23.85	25.5%	$5.9
2211	Yes	23.8	24.8%	$5.74
bigdog8383	Yes	23.03	31.9%	$7.14
RogerMcdee	Yes	21.21	33.9%	$7
uuto	Yes	20	26.0%	$5.05
misc1444	Yes	20	20.0%	$4
umbrella-labs	Yes	20	5.0%	$1
Neon Ledger DE71	Yes	19.35	16.0%	$3	Jun 18, 7:30 AM UTC
Aldik	Yes	18.52	27.8%	$5
cryptoll	Yes	17.39	23.7%	$4
goldsniffer	Yes	17.14	14.5%	$2.4
Starry-Collectivization	Yes	16.67	6.2%	$1	Jun 19, 12:16 AM UTC
mct21	Yes	15.63	32.9%	$5
Active-Earth	Yes	15	30.8%	$4.5
shrekomatic	Yes	15	14.1%	$2.12	Jun 18, 4:26 PM UTC
triklozoid	Yes	15	0.1%	$0.02
herdrono109	Yes	14.74	22.7%	$3.24
allseeingeye1	Yes	14.52	23.7%	$3.34
tweetmaster	Yes	13	12.4%	$1.56	Jun 18, 6:40 AM UTC
Worthless-Knifeedge	Yes	11.17	12.4%	$1.34
Growing-Evaluation	Yes	11.11	9.3%	$1	Jun 18, 12:20 PM UTC
dengduquan	Yes	11.11	27.8%	$3
Defiant-Democrat-Someone	Yes	10.45	22.7%	$2.3
Shonan	Yes	10.45	11.4%	$1.15	Jun 18, 9:54 AM UTC
zxcursed121	Yes	10	6.8%	$0.68
rolffeathers	Yes	9.78	31.5%	$3
Zbatata	Yes	9.28	31.9%	$2.88
Composed-Roll	Yes	9.09	22.7%	$2
marvr100	Yes	9	23.7%	$2.07
Fruitful-Inlaws	Yes	7.14	14.5%	$1
Qualified-Blow	Yes	6.67	15.5%	$1
Solar Harbor 68D4	Yes	6.25	34.2%	$2
ralphknot	Yes	5.35	26.7%	$1.39	Jun 19, 1:07 AM UTC
Dreary-Inevitable	Yes	5.26	19.6%	$1
justalark	Yes	5	20.6%	$1
intdtghy5	Yes	5	0.1%	$0.01
Repentant-General	Yes	5	15.0%	$0.75
b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.	Yes	4.99	1.2%	$0.06
Sociable-Skunk	Yes	4.55	22.7%	$1
nnchannel	Yes	4.17	24.7%	$1
shredux	Yes	4	25.8%	$1
trbee	Yes	3.85	26.8%	$1
GanGreenGroin	Yes	3.45	29.8%	$1
Ouaksor	Yes	3.32	31.9%	$1.03
onionpredictor	Yes	3.23	31.9%	$1
WeatherTwo	Yes	3.23	31.9%	$1
Crushing-Pack	Yes	3.13	32.9%	$1
lego2	Yes	2.7	37.9%	$1
Fuzzy-Deduce	Yes	2.44	42.0%	$1
stw94	Yes	0.53	28.1%	$0.15
xddBusinesss	Yes	0.37	31.7%	$0.12

211 of 211 positions.

Holders by valueThe same holders, ranked by what their position is worth now.

Trader	Holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$866.67K
vivielibre	$0.07
Quiet Kestrel 913B	$0.04

Analytics