Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Across the 76 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 64.5% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 14.5% on 9 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 30%; a month before, 23.5%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 26.5% on 9 Sep 2026.

Microsoft is the favourite of the 9 outcomes in “3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?”, ahead of Alphabet at 25%.

$1.98K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $29.96K since listing. The order book holds $5.99K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $6.07K bought Yes and $3.53K bought No; the largest was a $1.34K buy of Yes at 61.9¢.

The largest Yes position is Hauchn with 6.3K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 9.3K. Ten wallets hold 89.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.

Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.