Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?Yes | buy | 651.6 | $0.153 | $100 | Oct 17, 2025 |
 |
| sell |
| 29.7 |
| $0.500 |
| $14.85 |
| Oct 13, 2025 |
 Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes | sell | 85.23 | $0.999 | $85.14 | Oct 13, 2025 |
 Will Trump visit the Western Wall by October 31?Yes | buy | 1.4K | $0.036 | $49.99 | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?Yes | buy | 245.1 | $0.510 | $125 | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes | buy | 85.24 | $0.590 | $50.29 | Oct 13, 2025 |
 Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?Yes | sell | 202.75 | $0.667 | $135.29 | Oct 13, 2025 |
 Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?No | buy | 1.9K | $0.005 | $10 | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?No | buy | 625 | $0.080 | $50 | Oct 11, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Yes | buy | 249.26 | $0.058 | $14.35 | Oct 9, 2025 |
 Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.057 | $56.52 | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Yes | buy | 1.19K | $0.047 | $56 | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?Yes | sell | 200 | $0.280 | $56 | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?Yes | buy | 402.75 | $0.217 | $87.5 | Oct 4, 2025 |
 Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes | sell | 208.33 | $0.420 | $87.5 | Sep 10, 2025 |
 Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Yes | buy | 1.18K | $0.120 | $142.04 | Aug 1, 2025 |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Yes | sell | 416.66 | $0.341 | $142.04 | Aug 1, 2025 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Yes | buy | 416.67 | $0.360 | $150 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Yes | buy | 238.1 | $0.210 | $50 | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Yes | buy | 476.19 | $0.210 | $100 | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Yes | buy | 434.78 | $0.230 | $100 | Jul 16, 2025 |
| Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes | buy | 2.51K | $0.024 | $60 | Jul 16, 2025 |
 Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July meeting?Yes | buy | 654.63 | $0.026 | $17.26 | Jul 2, 2025 |
 Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?Yes | sell | 92.48 | $0.835 | $77.26 | Jun 30, 2025 |
 Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?Yes | sell | 172.4 | $0.290 | $50 | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?Yes | buy | 92.48 | $0.324 | $30 | Jun 17, 2025 |
 Trump x Xi talk before July?Yes | buy | 407.94 | $0.128 | $52.39 | Jun 17, 2025 |
 Trump x Putin talk before July?Yes | buy | 192.31 | $0.520 | $100 | Jun 17, 2025 |
 Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in May?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.250 | $25 | Jun 11, 2025 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in May?Yes | buy | 151.21 | $0.129 | $19.48 | Jun 7, 2025 |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Dacian Cioloș?Yes | buy | 1.5K | $0.007 | $10 | Jun 5, 2025 |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes | buy | 208.33 | $0.120 | $25 | Jun 5, 2025 |
 Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?Yes | buy | 74.48 | $0.328 | $24.45 | Jun 5, 2025 |
 Will the US add between 50k and 99k jobs in May?Yes | buy | 238.33 | $0.170 | $40.5 | Jun 4, 2025 |
 US recession in 2025?Yes | sell | 150 | $0.270 | $40.5 | Jun 4, 2025 |
| US recession in 2025?Yes | buy | 129.03 | $0.310 | $40 | Jun 3, 2025 |
 Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 2% and 1%?Yes | buy | 203.85 | $0.128 | $26 | Jun 3, 2025 |
| US recession in 2025?Yes | buy | 322.58 | $0.310 | $100 | Jun 3, 2025 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the June meeting?Yes | buy | 1.01K | $0.026 | $26.76 | Jun 3, 2025 |
 Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?Yes | sell | 359.5 | $0.245 | $87.91 | Jun 3, 2025 |
 Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?Yes | sell | 175.15 | $0.599 | $104.86 | Jun 3, 2025 |
 Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?Yes | buy | 368.67 | $0.271 | $100 | Jun 1, 2025 |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?Yes | buy | 125.2 | $0.451 | $56.44 | Jun 1, 2025 |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?Yes | sell | 82.95 | $0.750 | $62.21 | Jun 1, 2025 |
 Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?Yes | sell | 122.69 | $0.768 | $94.23 | Jun 1, 2025 |
 Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?Yes | buy | 178.57 | $0.140 | $25 | May 31, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during the press conference?Yes | buy | 166.67 | $0.150 | $25 | May 30, 2025 |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?Yes | buy | 82.95 | $0.400 | $33.18 | May 30, 2025 |
| Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?Yes | buy | 328.57 | $0.140 | $46 | May 27, 2025 |
 Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 64-66%?Yes | buy | 257.49 | $0.035 | $9 | May 26, 2025 |