Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?

Resolved

No, settled Jun 2, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$2.6M

Resolved

Settled

Jun 2, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 2 Jun 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 17% on 20 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 20 May 2025 to 2 Jun 2025, the highest close was 27% on 26 May 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 0.1% on 2 Jun 2025. $2.58M traded over the market's life.

181 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jun 3, 4:24 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 20 May 2025 – 2 Jun 2025, chart shows 0%–40%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	862.17K
cristiansurub	Yes	32.58K
degen1111	Yes	24.76K
1johnny1	Yes	20.06K

10 of 181 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The runoff for the Polish presidential election is scheduled for June 1, 2025. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2025 Polish Presidential Election runoff. For the purpose of this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first and second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Polish Presidential Election runoff. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the votes count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2025 ET, or if the runoff is permanently canceled, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Polish Government, specifically the National Electoral Commission (Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza, PKW) (https://www.pkw.gov.pl/).