Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.6%. Yes opened at 74.5% on 12 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 21 daily closes on record from 12 Oct 2025 to 1 Nov 2025, the highest close was 74.5% on 12 Oct 2025 and the lowest 1.4% on 1 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 49.5% on 13 Oct 2025. $52.84K traded over the market's life.
61 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 4:33 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 12 Oct 2025 – 1 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Oct 2025 | 74.5% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | 1.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 1.02K |
| lissartter | Yes | 876.09 |
| exothetajunkie | Yes | 795.5 |
| thomas111 | Yes | 593.42 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between October 11, 5:15 PM, and October 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until November 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-7pt0-or-above-earthquake-by-october-31-951
| gopfan2 | Yes | 584.73 |
| ayrtonromania | Yes | 215.4 |
| BeN | Yes | 201.69 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 166 |
| Shunky | Yes | 140 |
| Imright321 | Yes | 100 |
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