Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 2% and 1%?

Resolved

No, settled Jul 30, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$221.6K

Resolved

Settled

Jul 30, 2025 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 30 Jul 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 92.5%. Yes opened at 21% on 1 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 91 daily closes on record from 1 May 2025 to 30 Jul 2025, the highest close was 27% on 22 Jun 2025 and the lowest 7.5% on 30 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 7.5% on 30 Jul 2025. $221.59K traded over the market's life.

108 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 31, 4:40 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 91 points, 1 May 2025 – 30 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–40%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
1 May 2025	21.0%
30 Jul 2025	7.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	107.99K
Aditcooks	Yes	2.72K
vtri	Yes	2.51K

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2025 scheduled for July 30, 2025. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.