Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

weatherResolved

Yes, settled Oct 23, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$5.3K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Oct 23, 2026 UTC

Topic roomOutbreaks and pandemics

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 23 Oct 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 25% on 12 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 70 daily closes on record from 12 Aug 2026 to 21 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 100% on 17 Oct 2026 and the lowest 25% on 12 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 89.5% on 2 Sep 2026. $5.34K traded over the market's life.

14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 23, 4:44 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 70 points, 12 Aug 2026 – 21 Oct 2026

Same event

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

1↑4.5kThis market100.0%
2↑4.5kThis market$5.34K traded100.0%
3↑4.75k$65.48K traded97.9%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Measly-Cuticle	No	503.38
Hakei.	No	225.81
Mahnic	No	103.85

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.