Analytics
Yes is at 4.9%, down 45 points from 50% when the market opened on 24 Jan 2026.
Across the 257 daily closes on record from 24 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 24 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 18 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6%; a month before, 2%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 25% on 26 Jan 2026.
It is one of 9 markets under “Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?”.
$684.98 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $360.38K since listing. The order book holds $3.27K, with a 1.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $390.39 bought Yes and $24.86K bought No; the largest was a $2.06K buy of No at 96.3¢.
The largest Yes position is Ahoetah with 1.9K shares; the largest No position is gmeowcl with 2.6K. Ten wallets hold 73.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:51 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 257 points, 24 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | 50.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 4.9% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026
| Solar Raven A90C |
| No |
| 593.63 |
| smap | Yes | 465.91 |
| 3zekiel | No | 400 |
| Cold070 | Yes | 398.7 |
| georgecalinescu8635 | No | 398.37 |
| fElon | No | 388.98 |
| Gaujmalietis | No | 335.28 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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