Will the US strike Iran next?

Name: Will the US strike Iran next? — implied probability history
License: https://vultax.com/legal/terms

Resolved

No, settled Jan 24, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.2M

Resolved

Settled

Jan 24, 2026 UTC

Positions left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	112K	0.0%	$0
0x3b2f973072657	Yes	50K	0.1%	$50	Jan 23, 10:53 PM UTC
Salvador292003	Yes	40.28K	0.2%	$90.99	Jan 23, 10:45 PM UTC
Positive-Crinoline	Yes	27.46K	0.2%	$59.97	Jan 23, 11:30 PM UTC
Open-Caddy	Yes	25.21K	0.1%	$29.78	Jan 23, 11:17 PM UTC
wa-r-u-gaa	Yes	20K	0.1%	$20	Jan 23, 10:37 PM UTC
Majestic-Ordination	Yes	19K	0.1%	$19	Jan 23, 11:01 PM UTC
Faryd	Yes	16.53K	1.2%	$198	Jan 23, 10:21 PM UTC
RCPL	Yes	16.18K	0.8%	$130	Jan 23, 9:08 PM UTC
NickAndreadis	Yes	16.11K	1.2%	$199.99	Jan 23, 9:37 PM UTC
elroee	Yes	12.6K	0.4%	$54.99	Jan 23, 10:32 PM UTC
Generalnyx	Yes	11.88K	0.2%	$25.58	Jan 23, 10:48 PM UTC
Mrbeja	Yes	10K	12.2%	$1.22K
Silky-Pork	Yes	9K	0.1%	$9	Jan 23, 11:39 PM UTC
saroxide	Yes	5.26K	11.5%	$603.39
Raw-Timing	Yes	5.07K	1.9%	$98.12
Scented-Pompom	Yes	5K	0.1%	$5	Jan 23, 11:54 PM UTC
Siziriv	Yes	5K	4.5%	$227.27	Jan 23, 9:29 PM UTC
Svelte-Skyscraper	Yes	4.83K	1.0%	$48.99	Jan 23, 10:04 PM UTC
Agitated-Inequality	Yes	4.77K	0.2%	$9.06	Jan 23, 10:35 PM UTC
shroomi	Yes	4.63K	2.1%	$100	Jan 23, 9:30 PM UTC
Partial-Carboxyl	Yes	4.03K	1.6%	$63	Jan 23, 9:00 PM UTC
klsfdnkjzdsf	Yes	4K	1.0%	$41.15	Jan 23, 9:29 PM UTC
ddasdasd	Yes	4K	8.0%	$320.16
Loving-Doughnut	Yes	4K	0.1%	$4	Jan 23, 11:55 PM UTC
Zacariaas	Yes	3.99K	5.3%	$209.99	Jan 23, 8:43 PM UTC
GollumGekko	Yes	3.8K	4.5%	$172.75
Pedja-T	Yes	3.8K	0.1%	$3.8	Jan 23, 10:52 PM UTC
xlefgerx	Yes	3.61K	2.0%	$70.95
Phaloslocus	Yes	3K	0.1%	$3	Jan 23, 10:54 PM UTC
ak114	Yes	2.74K	1.9%	$53.65	Jan 23, 8:10 PM UTC
Gregarious-Control	Yes	2.56K	1.9%	$50	Jan 23, 9:52 PM UTC
moa122	Yes	2.3K	17.3%	$398.17
nectx	Yes	2.2K	0.0%	$0
R3v3	Yes	2.14K	1.7%	$37.31	Jan 23, 9:29 PM UTC
Knowing-Scent	Yes	2.1K	0.5%	$10	Jan 23, 11:35 PM UTC
Mtizzy	Yes	2K	0.1%	$2	Jan 24, 12:05 AM UTC
ElanKalelan	Yes	2K	0.1%	$2	Jan 23, 10:54 PM UTC
greatguy1234	Yes	1.81K	8.3%	$150
Acidic-Cyst	Yes	1.74K	8.8%	$153
Bigghaith	Yes	1.69K	1.7%	$29.37
Violet-Sleet	Yes	1.64K	12.2%	$200
stronkendary	Yes	1.56K	9.6%	$150
Crimson Meteor 78E3	Yes	1.49K	1.8%	$27	Jan 23, 10:14 PM UTC
GuyK6	Yes	1.41K	0.2%	$3	Jan 23, 10:28 PM UTC
Betwizard1851	Yes	1.37K	10.7%	$145.98
Emerald Beacon 417C	Yes	1.36K	1.8%	$25
JC136	Yes	1.34K	1.5%	$20	Jan 23, 7:58 PM UTC
userborn1985	Yes	1.29K	11.6%	$150
canzero	Yes	1.1K	10.3%	$114
Mx007nl	Yes	1.09K	0.9%	$10	Jan 23, 10:14 PM UTC
Some-Donut	Yes	1.07K	18.6%	$200
Occasional-Animal	Yes	1.06K	9.4%	$100
fatherofmatteo	Yes	1.01K	1.6%	$15.71
Stunning-Return	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 24, 12:11 AM UTC
Clat12	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 23, 11:57 PM UTC
Ugly-Booklet	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 24, 12:09 AM UTC
Impractical-Earth	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 23, 11:08 PM UTC
Alarming-Dialogue	Yes	1K	0.1%	$1	Jan 24, 12:09 AM UTC
philkaggitz1488	Yes	1K	0.0%	$0
tothemoooon9999	Yes	1K	7.8%	$78.08
Diablo182007	Yes	975.7	16.1%	$157
Alienated-Goodie	Yes	967.59	2.5%	$24
teest11	Yes	940.94	0.0%	$0
Acclaimed-Barge	Yes	936.19	0.5%	$5	Jan 23, 9:24 PM UTC
Derrek16	Yes	928	1.9%	$18
gerenuk	Yes	887.57	16.9%	$150
Twijnstra	Yes	869.57	2.3%	$20	Jan 23, 9:45 PM UTC
y.u.m.i	Yes	768.5	21.4%	$164.24
Minor-Dumbwaiter	Yes	747.08	1.3%	$10	Jan 23, 9:59 PM UTC
Violet Horizon 3511	Yes	720.27	8.3%	$60
kazasker95	Yes	674	1.5%	$10.11
genix	Yes	652.51	15.3%	$100
ElRapido	Yes	600	0.5%	$3	Jan 23, 9:23 PM UTC
Fatal-Fingerling	Yes	600	0.5%	$3	Jan 23, 9:08 PM UTC
Bananabradacabra	Yes	573.71	17.4%	$100
Noted-Arithmetic	Yes	564.38	17.5%	$99
Personal-Lode	Yes	562.49	17.8%	$100
Keen Tide 9C7A	Yes	555.56	1.8%	$10
Whispered-Trophy	Yes	548.75	2.4%	$13	Jan 23, 8:47 PM UTC
Drostaa	Yes	530.97	8.3%	$44
Forthright-Class	Yes	530.3	7.5%	$40
Duarte2603	Yes	510.01	0.2%	$1	Jan 23, 11:20 PM UTC
Double-Hand	Yes	506.67	1.0%	$5	Jan 23, 9:16 PM UTC
Squiggly-Caffeine	Yes	504.37	2.0%	$10	Jan 23, 9:31 PM UTC
Enormous-Reasoning	Yes	503	1.0%	$5	Jan 23, 9:14 PM UTC
6698	Yes	495.95	12.1%	$60
Defiazog	Yes	482.38	2.1%	$10	Jan 23, 8:32 PM UTC
Dependable-Dad	Yes	479.47	13.6%	$65
High-Level-Relative	Yes	465.14	4.9%	$23
Elaborate-Yin	Yes	459.28	2.2%	$10	Jan 23, 8:33 PM UTC
Rusty-Injustice	Yes	458.53	2.2%	$10	Jan 23, 8:14 PM UTC
pawko	Yes	449.24	10.2%	$46
Acrobatic-Benefit	Yes	447.78	0.9%	$4	Jan 23, 10:23 PM UTC
PowlessMike	Yes	439.8	6.8%	$30
Austere-Porch	Yes	438.94	2.3%	$10	Jan 23, 8:42 PM UTC
Unruly-Stepgrandfather	Yes	428.57	1.4%	$6
Worrisome-Atelier	Yes	423.63	15.3%	$64.94
wasest	Yes	416.08	0.7%	$3	Jan 23, 9:11 PM UTC
Whole-Succotash	Yes	404.4	1.0%	$4	Jan 23, 10:14 PM UTC
Secondary-Moody	Yes	399.99	19.9%	$79.8
Kalcium	Yes	364.98	1.4%	$5.03	Jan 23, 8:04 PM UTC
Heavenly-Format	Yes	351.48	2.0%	$7
Selfish-Embryo	Yes	350.25	14.3%	$50
mmarpi	Yes	334.34	2.1%	$7	Jan 23, 9:42 PM UTC
Bright Maven 4116	Yes	333.33	0.9%	$3	Jan 23, 9:16 PM UTC
Idand	Yes	333.33	0.6%	$2	Jan 23, 9:25 PM UTC
kanqing	Yes	318.77	8.9%	$28.45
halayperest	Yes	315.63	3.2%	$10
Liveisbrutal	Yes	300.61	5.1%	$15.2
Radiant-Walker	Yes	300	15.7%	$47.1
Jam-Packed-Squid	Yes	300	22.0%	$65.9
Eastwind	Yes	300	1.9%	$5.8	Jan 23, 8:04 PM UTC
Superior-Fritter	Yes	288.2	15.6%	$45
Firefight	Yes	286.15	11.5%	$33
Panto1983	Yes	280.79	17.1%	$48
Frizzy-Sonnet	Yes	279.29	19.8%	$55.29
Bold Maven 776F	Yes	268.67	1.5%	$4	Jan 23, 10:10 PM UTC
turret	Yes	263.16	7.6%	$20
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	261.78	0.0%	$0
Noteworthy-Compost	Yes	257.57	11.6%	$30
tejuto	Yes	254.87	2.0%	$5	Jan 23, 8:00 PM UTC
DarthTyranus	Yes	244.55	2.0%	$5	Jan 23, 8:55 PM UTC
Neon Oracle D8CE	Yes	234.74	13.6%	$32
LaRouleee	Yes	233.43	21.4%	$50
Faith1999	Yes	230	2.2%	$5	Jan 23, 9:43 PM UTC
Simyi	Yes	229.89	17.4%	$40
Middler0x	Yes	222.94	22.0%	$49.09
Quiet Falcon E64B	Yes	215.85	19.8%	$42.75
Yuanch	Yes	205	8.3%	$17.02
Delirious-Rubric	Yes	203.11	10.8%	$22
nevergamble	Yes	200	0.1%	$0.2
from10dollarstodream	Yes	200	0.1%	$0.2
Alex.Bog	Yes	200	0.5%	$1	Jan 23, 9:24 PM UTC
pr1ms	Yes	197.95	18.1%	$35.88
Finished-Anguish	Yes	197.89	10.1%	$20
castelelie	Yes	195.4	12.8%	$25
Third-Swamp	Yes	172.32	1.2%	$2	Jan 23, 10:01 PM UTC
Hairy-Banana	Yes	171.67	0.6%	$1	Jan 23, 10:27 PM UTC
Scratchy-Manatee	Yes	171.36	14.1%	$24.09
Aware-Favorite	Yes	161.07	14.9%	$24
Cool-Synonym	Yes	157.74	9.5%	$15
Aodhan1234	Yes	150	8.4%	$12.6
Abdalayzer	Yes	144.46	2.8%	$4
SlavaShirayuki	Yes	143.78	9.0%	$12.94
Low-Grief	Yes	143.2	21.6%	$31
Saeedzb	Yes	139.06	21.3%	$29.69
Royal Quasar 52C5	Yes	138.41	2.2%	$3
ewqfrffet	Yes	126.58	7.9%	$10
Lovable-Ninja	Yes	122.24	1.6%	$2
Piruleta	Yes	119.6	16.7%	$20
Persianate	Yes	119.43	12.4%	$14.82
Rambo03	Yes	117.68	8.5%	$10
Topfloorph777	Yes	116.76	16.7%	$19.5
DEGENERATEGOOSE	Yes	113.64	8.8%	$10
Gripping-Weight	Yes	111.11	1.8%	$2
Okev175m10	Yes	111.11	0.9%	$1	Jan 23, 10:13 PM UTC
Simmy441	Yes	111.11	9.0%	$10
grozsadavid	Yes	111.11	9.0%	$10
JGatsby	Yes	111.11	9.0%	$10
Cobalt Harbor 6709	Yes	109.79	18.9%	$20.78
Dim-Frock	Yes	108.49	9.2%	$10
ronron	Yes	107.18	23.3%	$25
TheSanFero	Yes	105.38	9.5%	$10
Wedder	Yes	105.25	1.9%	$2	Jan 23, 9:50 PM UTC
DavayDavay	Yes	103	1.0%	$1	Jan 23, 9:29 PM UTC
Drab-Vulture	Yes	102.16	9.3%	$9.5
Ry1o	Yes	100.6	9.9%	$9.97
alohapancake94	Yes	100	17.1%	$17.1
SalpicaoMole	Yes	100	1.0%	$1	Jan 23, 10:11 PM UTC
Barend1993	Yes	100	1.9%	$1.9
Trong0322	Yes	100	12.0%	$12
Gleeful-Documentary	Yes	99.83	7.0%	$7
trefemma	Yes	99.76	16.0%	$16
Pm380	Yes	96.46	6.2%	$6
Cryptodevil666	Yes	95.54	10.5%	$10
Rokokoraccoon	Yes	94	1.0%	$0.94
TheRealsoJ	Yes	92.86	16.2%	$15
Bogus-Graffiti	Yes	92.86	10.8%	$10
Rapid Maven 8AD3	Yes	92.59	10.8%	$10
Bold-Attachment	Yes	90	1.2%	$1.08
Rapid Tide ABF4	Yes	87.04	7.1%	$6.18
Lumbering-Sheep	Yes	84.18	11.9%	$10
Pungent-Chain	Yes	83.41	12.0%	$10
Liquid-Farmland	Yes	83.33	12.0%	$10
Micmic1	Yes	80.55	12.4%	$10
Embellished-Relationship	Yes	80	7.5%	$5.99
Roasted-Grenade	Yes	73.89	8.1%	$6
Usable-Tuba	Yes	73.86	13.5%	$10
Yearly-Bachelor	Yes	73.1	6.8%	$5
pentxayc	Yes	72.59	13.8%	$10
Warm-Orchid	Yes	72.47	6.9%	$5
Guesswho202	Yes	70	1.4%	$1	Jan 23, 8:16 PM UTC
False-Quote	Yes	68.97	2.2%	$1.5	Jan 23, 8:35 PM UTC
Intent-Fog	Yes	67.95	7.2%	$4.9
Emma17	Yes	67.11	14.9%	$10
Joyous-Rainbow	Yes	66.72	15.2%	$10.12
BboyTayki12	Yes	65.94	1.5%	$1
Flustered-Skylight	Yes	65.79	7.6%	$5
Tired-Train	Yes	64.94	7.7%	$5
shine	Yes	62.98	0.0%	$0
Loathsome-Jade	Yes	62.15	14.3%	$8.9
aphmlrc	Yes	61.98	8.1%	$5
Bouncy-Page	Yes	61.11	1.8%	$1.1
Acceptable-Gentleman	Yes	61	12.5%	$7.61
Red-Politician	Yes	60.98	8.2%	$5
Radiant-Back	Yes	60.61	16.5%	$10
cyb3rops	Yes	60.42	16.6%	$10
an4oyc	Yes	60.05	16.7%	$10
Well-To-Do-Soybean	Yes	57.43	3.5%	$2
MadoffBernie	Yes	56.82	8.8%	$5
Unsteady-Finisher	Yes	56.37	17.7%	$10
Neon Atlas 2F1D	Yes	56.18	17.8%	$10
Neuid.	Yes	55.92	8.9%	$5
imtoasty	Yes	55.61	18.0%	$10
Feline-Constraint	Yes	55.56	9.0%	$5
Steep-Heartache	Yes	55.56	1.8%	$1
Handsome-Mandolin	Yes	55.42	12.6%	$7
colebh	Yes	55.39	9.0%	$5
Growling-Violence	Yes	54.11	1.8%	$1	Jan 23, 9:40 PM UTC
Huepupola	Yes	54	1.7%	$0.92	Jan 23, 9:27 PM UTC
Xrrtszhrh	Yes	52.3	7.6%	$4
JohanBamischijf	Yes	51.86	9.6%	$5
ethanhunty	Yes	50.89	7.9%	$4
majorvis	Yes	50	8.7%	$4.36
Polite-Jacket	Yes	50	21.4%	$10.7
prorly	Yes	49.75	10.0%	$5
TROPICO-FR	Yes	49.63	8.2%	$4.07
Shoddy-Limo	Yes	49.08	8.1%	$4
Hoarse-Arithmetic	Yes	48.99	10.2%	$5
Unimportant-Apparel	Yes	47.86	8.3%	$4
Impartial-Bar	Yes	47.78	6.3%	$3
lvl0023	Yes	47.29	10.6%	$5
sportsFish	Yes	46.62	12.0%	$5.59
Dizzy-Trim	Yes	43.95	9.1%	$4
Steep-Hook	Yes	42.02	11.9%	$5
hurz	Yes	41.67	12.0%	$5
Jsvensson	Yes	41.49	10.7%	$4.46
Popota	Yes	41.05	7.3%	$3
Ozzyman06	Yes	40.69	12.3%	$5
oager	Yes	40	12.7%	$5.08
agrayman	Yes	33	15.2%	$5.02
Untidy-Rebellion	Yes	32.17	15.5%	$5
Miji	Yes	31.56	9.5%	$3
giladd92	Yes	29.36	13.6%	$4
ImKun	Yes	29.07	17.2%	$5
yzhaobk	Yes	28.58	0.0%	$0
soorajrup	Yes	28.28	17.7%	$5
Gogo8	Yes	27.4	7.3%	$2
Crimson Beacon 5CB7	Yes	26.67	7.5%	$2
HombrePorro	Yes	25.95	11.6%	$3
facaiwang	Yes	25.88	7.7%	$2
Impure-Valley	Yes	24.1	8.3%	$2
Tomato1234	Yes	23	21.6%	$4.97
erety	Yes	22.73	17.6%	$4
somewhereintime	Yes	22.62	22.1%	$5
Golden Scout D236	Yes	21.98	9.1%	$2
Knobby-Effector	Yes	21.28	9.4%	$2
Odd-Nonbeliever	Yes	21.01	23.8%	$5
Wadaxiwa	Yes	20.99	11.9%	$2.5
archiegee	Yes	20.83	9.6%	$2
ericghoste	Yes	20	10.0%	$2
Cr007	Yes	20	2.0%	$0.4
viniribasv	Yes	19.99	10.0%	$2
RoughAnalytics	Yes	17.75	16.9%	$3
Heavenly-Follower	Yes	17.09	11.7%	$2
Fixed-Overload	Yes	17	12.2%	$2.07
Tonelesscrib	Yes	16.67	12.0%	$2
UncleDrake5	Yes	16.67	6.0%	$1
Baggy-Hotel	Yes	16.57	18.1%	$3
ramadev	Yes	16	12.7%	$2.03
United-Picnic	Yes	15.79	19.0%	$3
saltlessbread	Yes	15	8.8%	$1.32
Violet Atlas 1613	Yes	14.29	7.0%	$1
Ample-Rank	Yes	14.19	14.8%	$2.1
northstarx777	Yes	13.84	7.2%	$1
Cheese-crackers-and-a-slice-of-pickle	Yes	13.42	14.9%	$2
isanali	Yes	13.33	7.5%	$1
Coral Lynx 6724	Yes	13.16	7.6%	$1
Voluminous-Terrarium	Yes	12.99	7.7%	$1
Jaytbasque	Yes	12.9	15.5%	$2
VaraksinViktor	Yes	12.75	7.8%	$1
shor13	Yes	12.67	7.9%	$1
Tan-Mat	Yes	12.66	15.8%	$2
Neat-Sleepiness	Yes	12.61	7.9%	$1
Organic-Pit	Yes	12.5	8.0%	$1
Liquid-Organising	Yes	12.35	8.1%	$1
Royal Summit 8874	Yes	12.34	8.1%	$1
Nyx100x	Yes	12.17	8.2%	$1
Misty Signal 1758	Yes	12.05	8.3%	$1
Kevin29170	Yes	12.05	8.3%	$1
Thorny-Sarong	Yes	11.9	8.4%	$1
Staid-Company	Yes	11.9	8.4%	$1
Alphasap	Yes	11.9	16.8%	$2
Bold Lynx A5DB	Yes	11.63	8.6%	$1
Stanox	Yes	11.49	8.7%	$1
Plump-Abacus	Yes	11.43	17.5%	$2
Skydevil	Yes	11.11	9.0%	$1
aliwire	Yes	11.11	9.0%	$1
Senisidras	Yes	11.11	9.0%	$1
Fearful-Bonus	Yes	10.31	9.7%	$1
Lowexp	Yes	10.31	9.7%	$1
Helpful-Brocolli	Yes	10.2	9.8%	$1
championone	Yes	10	6.0%	$0.6
Authentic-Appliance	Yes	10	10.0%	$1
p3ter007	Yes	10	10.0%	$1
Cooperative-Chronometer	Yes	10	14.0%	$1.4
Hungry-Stamina	Yes	10	10.0%	$1
Far-Off-Reamer	Yes	10	12.4%	$1.24
anzhiahmd	Yes	10	10.0%	$1
leunammus	Yes	9.9	10.1%	$1
NovEn	Yes	9.8	10.2%	$1
Sturdy-Lunchroom	Yes	9.71	10.3%	$1
Striped-Attempt	Yes	9.57	20.9%	$2
Vapeinprague	Yes	9.01	11.1%	$1
Flaky-Load	Yes	8.93	11.2%	$1
Eager-Phenotype	Yes	8.85	11.3%	$1
duckduck4	Yes	8.77	11.4%	$1
Ecstatic-Poncho	Yes	8.62	11.6%	$1
IsoldeBaden	Yes	8.62	11.6%	$1
Uncommon-Stimulation	Yes	8.4	11.9%	$1
Saracens7	Yes	8.06	12.4%	$1
themanager	Yes	6.8	14.7%	$1
teply	Yes	6.58	15.2%	$1
Rebxrn	Yes	6.36	15.7%	$1
Cooked-Spoon	Yes	6.33	16.9%	$1.07
phantomboy98	Yes	6.33	15.8%	$1
Well-Informed-Teletype	Yes	6.13	16.3%	$1
Judicious-Cotton	Yes	5.81	17.2%	$1
DerpMage420	Yes	5.71	17.5%	$1
Generous-Reliability	Yes	5.65	17.7%	$1
queteimporta1	Yes	5.56	18.0%	$1
Agitated-Nose	Yes	5.56	18.0%	$1
TuiZest	Yes	5.49	18.2%	$1
Stimulating-Shoemaker	Yes	5.41	7.7%	$0.42
cearea	Yes	5	0.1%	$0.01
cktje	Yes	5	20.7%	$1.04
ligmamane	Yes	4.65	21.5%	$1
hintbro16	Yes	2.99	8.6%	$0.26
Gruesome-Activation	No	1.53	91.3%	$1.4
NicoleStev7sA2M	No	1.41	90.0%	$1.27
geoflatpol26Dby	No	1.26	90.0%	$1.13

342 of 342 positions.

Holders by valueThe same holders, ranked by what their position is worth now.

Trader	Holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$112K
Gruesome-Activation	$1.53
NicoleStev7sA2M	$1.41

Analytics