Analytics
Yes is at 58%, up 39 points from 18.5% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 21 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 22 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 62.5% on 11 Oct 2026 and the lowest 18.5% on 1 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 43%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 48% on 3 Oct 2026.
Pause-Hike-Pause is the favourite of the 9 outcomes in “Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)”, ahead of Pause-Hike-Hike at 17.5%.
$3.55K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $43.38K since listing. The order book holds $10.42K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 361 trades, $4.07K bought Yes and $9.34K bought No; the largest was a $1.26K buy of No at 50.7¢.
The largest Yes position is browne with 2.6K shares; the largest No position is Liquidifier with 2.3K. Ten wallets hold 75.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 27 Jan 2027, 98 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 22, 11:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 22 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 18.5% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | 58.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| browne | Yes | 2.57K |
| Liquidifier | No | 2.29K |
| GoldmanSachs | Yes | 2K |
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-oct-jan
| c10rmain |
| No |
| 2K |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes | 1.94K |
| simpleman | Yes | 1.6K |
| HolyMoses7VerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 1.52K |
| puravida | No | 1.32K |
| BetZilla | Yes | 1K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 862.15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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