Analytics
Yes is at 2.6%, down 7.4 points from 10% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 22 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 10% on 1 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.1%. Its largest one-day move was 6.3 points up, to 7.8% on 9 Oct 2026.
Hike-Pause-Pause ranks sixth of the 9 outcomes in “Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)”. Pause-Hike-Pause leads at 59%; Pause-Hike-Hike is at 17.5%.
$127.09 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.2K since listing. The order book holds $7.84K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 42 trades, $9.48 bought Yes and $586.57 bought No.
The largest Yes position is simpleman with 208 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 894. Ten wallets hold 92.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 27 Jan 2027, 97 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 3:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 10.0% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 2.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 894.15 |
| simpleman | Yes | 207.96 |
| predictgeek | Yes | 162.09 |
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-oct-jan
| AJSV |
| Yes |
| 127.66 |
| vlospa | Yes | 112 |
| Bigggggggg | Yes | 64.17 |
| sanduspace | Yes | 55.2 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 45 |
| Bruised-Steppingstone | Yes | 39.93 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 36 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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