Analytics
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
economyActive
Closes Jan 1, 2027 UTC
Yes
42.5%
No
57.5%
Yes costs 42.5¢No costs 57.5¢
24h Volume
$834
Total volume
$53.6K
Liquidity
$22.2K
Closes
Jan 1, 2027 UTC
Topic roomLargest Company
Where it stands
Yes is at 42.5%, up 13 points from 30% when the market opened on 8 Aug 2026.
Across the 94 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2026 to 14 Nov 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 65% on 9 Nov 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 24 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 53%; a month before, 15.5%. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 55% on 5 Nov 2026.
NVIDIA is the favourite of the 9 outcomes in “2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?”, ahead of Microsoft at 29.6%.
The best bid and the best ask are 5.0% apart, so read the price as a range. Across the latest 500 trades, $7.61K bought Yes and $3.49K bought No; the largest was a $2.39K buy of Yes at 34.9¢.
Ten wallets hold 78.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 48 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:25 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 94 points, 8 Aug 2026 – 14 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | 30.0% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 50.0% |
All outcomes
2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?
- 1NVIDIAThis market$53.64K traded42.5%
- 2Microsoft$10.39K traded29.6%
- 3
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 6.47K |
| Hauchn | Yes | 6.29K |
| e46m3 | No | 2.84K |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on a consensus of credible reporting. Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2nd-largest-company-end-of-december-2026
Dates
- Event startsAug 7, 2026 UTC
- Now
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in Largest Company
- Quarterly earnings, above all the chipmakers' guidance on data-centre demand
- Index flows and rebalancing on the last trading days of a month or quarter
- Rate expectations, which move long-duration technology stocks more than the market