Analytics
Yes is at 3.3%, down 3.7 points from 7% when the market opened on 8 Aug 2026.
Across the 81 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 12% on 10 Aug 2026 and the lowest 1.8% on 3 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.3%; a month before, 4.3%. Its largest one-day move was 6 points up, to 12% on 10 Aug 2026.
Microsoft ranks fourth of the 9 outcomes in “2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?”. Apple leads at 49%; NVIDIA is at 43.5%.
$49 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.66K since listing. The order book holds $18.58K, with a 1.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 154 trades, $42.59 bought Yes and $2.29K bought No.
The largest Yes position is e46m3 with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 4.6K. Ten wallets hold 94.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 7:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 81 points, 8 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | 7.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 3.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.61K |
| e46m3 | Yes | 1.07K |
| SteveTheFish | Yes | 984.26 |
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2nd-largest-company-end-of-december-2026
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 529.04 |
| balthazar | Yes | 510 |
| planktonXD | Yes | 343.09 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 335.6 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 220.89 |
| GrupoM4 | Yes | 205.75 |
| marcopolosrhino | Yes | 120.95 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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