Analytics
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
economyActive
Closes Jan 1, 2027 UTC
Yes
39.5%
No
60.5%
Yes costs 39.5¢No costs 60.5¢
24h Volume
$37.7K
Total volume
$37.7K
Liquidity
$4.4K
Closes
Jan 1, 2027 UTC
Topic roomLargest Company
Where it stands
Yes is at 39.5%, up 25 points from 15% when the market opened on 8 Aug 2026.
Across the 88 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2026 to 14 Nov 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 73% on 2 Nov 2026 and the lowest 14.5% on 9 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 65%; a month before, 29.5%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 52.5% on 10 Nov 2026.
Microsoft is the favourite of the 9 outcomes in “3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?”, ahead of Alphabet at 32.5%.
The best bid and the best ask are 7.0% apart, so read the price as a range. Across the latest 500 trades, $6.83K bought Yes and $2.71K bought No; the largest was a $1.34K buy of Yes at 61.9¢.
Ten wallets hold 84.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 48 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:25 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 88 points, 8 Aug 2026 – 14 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | 15.0% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 39.0% |
All outcomes
3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?
- 1MicrosoftThis market$37.69K traded39.5%
- 2Alphabet$55.12K traded32.5%
- 3
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 12.26K |
| Hauchn | Yes | 5.52K |
| e46m3 | Yes | 1.58K |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on a consensus of credible reporting. Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/3rd-largest-company-end-of-december-2026
Dates
- Event startsAug 7, 2026 UTC
- Now
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in Largest Company
- Quarterly earnings, above all the chipmakers' guidance on data-centre demand
- Index flows and rebalancing on the last trading days of a month or quarter
- Rate expectations, which move long-duration technology stocks more than the market