Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?

Name: Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? — implied probability history
License: https://vultax.com/legal/terms

Resolved

No, settled Mar 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$2.1M

Resolved

Settled

Mar 1, 2026 UTC

Positions left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
3.3.3	Yes	78.46K	4.5%	$3.56K
tetrose	Yes	15.58K	1.5%	$238.24	Feb 28, 11:42 AM UTC
Broken-Cashew	Yes	10.96K	1.2%	$129.98	Feb 28, 11:21 AM UTC
anonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn	Yes	10.35K	1.4%	$146.03	Feb 28, 7:35 PM UTC
necomane	Yes	9.53K	2.7%	$253.71	Feb 28, 1:31 PM UTC
2117	Yes	8.38K	2.4%	$197.02	Feb 28, 12:40 PM UTC
Leon8899	Yes	8K	1.6%	$127.99
bamesjond	Yes	7.47K	1.9%	$143.3	Feb 28, 3:13 PM UTC
Skinny-Class	Yes	6.9K	0.6%	$42.85	Feb 28, 3:43 PM UTC
770monster	Yes	6.25K	0.7%	$41.99
Trtr2026	Yes	5.44K	0.6%	$30.99
Trifling-Barbecue	Yes	5.22K	0.5%	$25.47
Lunariq	Yes	5.17K	2.9%	$150
boombioof	Yes	5.14K	1.3%	$64.51
Unequaled-Olive	Yes	5K	1.4%	$69.96
magyarpeter	Yes	3.97K	1.9%	$77	Feb 28, 7:56 PM UTC
00000000AAAAAAAA	Yes	3.73K	0.4%	$15.99
Easy-Going-Snowboarding	Yes	3.68K	3.4%	$125.58
CoolGuy14	Yes	3.6K	2.0%	$73.06
luckkyy	Yes	3.48K	0.1%	$3.98
Vigilant-Brake	Yes	3.36K	1.2%	$40
collectorr	Yes	2.89K	0.0%	$0
pitbullcnt	Yes	2.45K	5.7%	$138.7
fellers	Yes	2.39K	1.7%	$40
DixenCider	Yes	2.37K	5.7%	$134.37
Magenilan	Yes	2.17K	4.6%	$100	Feb 28, 3:30 PM UTC
jewpresident	Yes	2.17K	4.6%	$100
Flaky-Aluminium	Yes	2.09K	4.8%	$100
doomcat4208	Yes	2.01K	0.7%	$14.76
pinicohen	Yes	1.99K	0.5%	$9.95
Kosher-Unique	Yes	1.96K	0.5%	$10.84
bambamturtle	Yes	1.85K	2.7%	$49.33
laye379121	Yes	1.84K	2.7%	$50
Elibiton	Yes	1.77K	1.7%	$30	Feb 28, 2:10 PM UTC
Golden Raven 8A7C	Yes	1.67K	0.3%	$5
StellaMuffin	Yes	1.58K	9.5%	$150
Kosher-Guitarist	Yes	1.45K	4.3%	$62.35
Ronenio	Yes	1.23K	3.3%	$41
Villainous-Dealing	Yes	1.19K	2.1%	$25	Feb 28, 4:13 PM UTC
Josseph	Yes	1.15K	1.7%	$20
revealyourhole	Yes	1.15K	1.7%	$20
DarthTyranus	Yes	1.12K	1.2%	$14
peaceandlove4	Yes	1.12K	0.9%	$10
K31w	Yes	1.05K	1.9%	$20
0x8949	Yes	1.03K	15.9%	$163.64
Tangible-Mantle	Yes	1.01K	3.5%	$36
Joker10	Yes	1K	1.5%	$15	Feb 28, 2:51 PM UTC
Terrific-Grassland	Yes	1K	0.5%	$5	Feb 28, 4:52 PM UTC
94386193a	Yes	903	2.5%	$22.58
x7e79	Yes	885.98	2.6%	$22.84
Albboz0715	Yes	878.37	0.4%	$3.83
alexandrebayon	Yes	866.67	0.6%	$5
markiraf	Yes	704.55	14.2%	$100
Defensive-Lizard	Yes	666.8	3.4%	$22.84
ScarlettThompson	Yes	666.67	0.3%	$2
Wry-Chin	Yes	658.33	3.5%	$23	Feb 28, 8:50 PM UTC
bitcoinbh	Yes	645.55	1.5%	$10	Feb 28, 7:29 PM UTC
condogreturns2	Yes	570.39	3.5%	$20
likeapow	Yes	555.56	0.9%	$5
Kumici	Yes	515.46	0.9%	$4.92
Spirit-LT	Yes	500	1.8%	$9
testknow	Yes	500	4.0%	$20
Expensive-Technology	Yes	500	5.0%	$25
degtxaau	Yes	500	5.0%	$25
KerryKg	Yes	463.65	10.8%	$50
Cheap-Drinking	Yes	458.66	4.2%	$19.49	Feb 28, 4:00 PM UTC
NannoFk	Yes	436.32	2.3%	$10
Rectangular-Mare	Yes	415.48	2.9%	$12	Feb 28, 3:22 PM UTC
Tired-Shortwave	Yes	400	1.5%	$6
LlavesMoto	Yes	380	0.4%	$1.52	Feb 28, 10:43 PM UTC
slavesy	Yes	357.14	4.2%	$15
Wan-Farm	Yes	347.42	2.6%	$9
HadrianWren	Yes	333.33	0.3%	$1
ToruruUma	Yes	330	0.4%	$1.32
tixen	Yes	306.12	4.9%	$15
Noteworthy-Compost	Yes	285.71	7.0%	$20
Atkh1169	Yes	278.37	3.6%	$10
Favorable-Medication	Yes	273.32	1.8%	$5	Feb 28, 12:40 PM UTC
pro85	Yes	266.67	0.9%	$2.4	Mar 1, 5:43 AM UTC
Snarling-Sensitive	Yes	261.11	11.5%	$30
MiriamDobbin	Yes	250	0.4%	$1
keeling95	Yes	250	10.0%	$25
JohnIL01	Yes	242	1.2%	$3	Feb 28, 12:01 PM UTC
ChristAlice	Yes	241	3.0%	$7.23
CecilMill	Yes	235	0.5%	$1.18
Paulin22	Yes	232.95	2.6%	$6	Feb 28, 3:59 PM UTC
Gumpin	Yes	223.04	9.0%	$20
Absolute-Carol	Yes	222.22	9.0%	$20
Swift Oracle C279	Yes	222.22	0.9%	$2
Parcelino	Yes	220	3.4%	$7.48
AnaaMike	Yes	220	0.5%	$1.1
pro82	Yes	202.22	0.9%	$1.82	Mar 1, 5:38 AM UTC
0xRocket666	Yes	200	0.1%	$0.2
squirtdirty	Yes	200	9.0%	$18
BornAgain26	Yes	200	1.7%	$3.42
Omoolowo	Yes	200	0.5%	$1
Zyan232	Yes	200	6.5%	$13
TENETENET	Yes	199.99	0.1%	$0.2
pro84	Yes	193.33	0.9%	$1.74	Mar 1, 5:42 AM UTC
Growling-Violence	Yes	185.45	11.0%	$20.4
W1R	Yes	185.19	2.7%	$5	Feb 28, 5:19 PM UTC
prophecy7	Yes	185.19	2.7%	$5
Itaiso	Yes	181.82	1.1%	$2
rockvest	Yes	181.17	11.0%	$20
pro83a	Yes	180	0.9%	$1.62	Mar 1, 5:40 AM UTC
Violet Scout 533F	Yes	178.57	14.0%	$25
Perky-Jewel	Yes	170	1.1%	$1.87
Bruceknows	Yes	170	1.5%	$2.56
Crimson Beacon F4F7	Yes	166.67	1.2%	$2
Well-Off-Minnow	Yes	161.29	3.1%	$5	Feb 28, 3:49 PM UTC
therealcrucenho	Yes	156.25	3.2%	$5
Sardinianshepherd	Yes	156	2.7%	$4.21	Feb 28, 5:42 PM UTC
Unfit-Midnight	Yes	154.51	1.3%	$2
Unconscious-Icebreaker	Yes	151.52	3.3%	$5	Feb 28, 3:22 PM UTC
Sugary-Adult	Yes	147	0.7%	$1.03
MandyHalifax	Yes	147	0.8%	$1.18
ReginaIngersoll	Yes	147	0.7%	$1.03
Each-Jade	Yes	136.35	3.7%	$5
JOaozz	Yes	128.21	3.9%	$5
Tart-Tomorrow	Yes	125	1.6%	$2	Feb 28, 2:38 PM UTC
holdup2001	Yes	116.28	4.3%	$5
pro81	Yes	113.33	0.9%	$1.02	Mar 1, 5:36 AM UTC
0EB04e0	Yes	109.68	3.1%	$3.4
guyu90	Yes	108.7	4.6%	$5	Feb 28, 3:30 PM UTC
Silver Comet 1060	Yes	108.11	3.7%	$4
Merignac	Yes	106.5	4.7%	$5
carsonpoole	Yes	103.2	2.5%	$2.58
Ax37	No	102.19	97.9%	$100
president1	Yes	100	10.0%	$10
intuitive	Yes	100	4.3%	$4.3
xSanctuary	Yes	100	1.0%	$1	Feb 28, 12:17 PM UTC
4rchibald4rchy4rmstrong	Yes	100	9.0%	$9
hanspeter10	Yes	100	1.1%	$1.1
Mca10	No	100	97.0%	$97
Ddd64737464	Yes	96.77	3.1%	$3
Bekakaci	Yes	91.1	10.0%	$9.11
Melabets	Yes	90.91	1.1%	$1
Jessmac	Yes	90.91	1.1%	$1	Feb 28, 6:18 PM UTC
Pricey-Fatherinlaw	Yes	86.96	4.6%	$4
Marcovaz	Yes	79.81	2.5%	$2
SvoYak	Yes	79.2	2.5%	$1.98
JerryWilliam	Yes	77	2.4%	$1.85
NoraHornby	Yes	77	1.4%	$1.08
Ecstatic-Colonial	Yes	76.92	2.6%	$2
Apt-Knowledge	Yes	76.92	1.3%	$1
CynthiaAgnes	Yes	75	1.4%	$1.05
QuinnNoyes	Yes	75	2.4%	$1.8
AndrewSander	Yes	73	2.1%	$1.53
dododomeme	Yes	72	1.4%	$1.01
GeoPoBet-er	Yes	71.43	1.4%	$1	Feb 28, 12:48 PM UTC
Zarquon	Yes	70.55	3.0%	$2.12
Personal-Reject	Yes	68.06	2.9%	$2
Flawless-Cleat	Yes	67	1.5%	$1.01
Academic-Mutation	Yes	66.02	1.5%	$1
simmetrik	Yes	65.63	1.5%	$1	Feb 28, 11:48 AM UTC
Imaginary-Morsel	Yes	62.5	1.6%	$1	Feb 28, 11:50 AM UTC
Antique-Parenting	Yes	55.83	12.0%	$6.7
candleroi	Yes	55.56	3.6%	$2
BarlowPalmer	Yes	55	3.8%	$2.09
nichoas	Yes	53.01	4.4%	$2.32
Dearest-Polish	Yes	52.63	1.9%	$1
Chilly-Kite	Yes	52.63	1.9%	$1	Feb 28, 4:24 PM UTC
byVentus	Yes	50	13.0%	$6.5
jackma26	Yes	50	10.0%	$5
Doco	Yes	42	5.1%	$2.13
Adler300	Yes	41.67	2.4%	$1
dmoney517	Yes	41.22	4.9%	$2
MerryBellamy	Yes	40	3.7%	$1.48
Guber	Yes	40	2.5%	$1
Lixor	Yes	38.46	2.6%	$1
WRHP123	Yes	37.5	8.0%	$3
Trusty-Counterpart	Yes	32.5	8.0%	$2.6
milesc04	Yes	32.26	3.1%	$1
Embellished-Chaplain	Yes	30.3	3.3%	$1
0x152	Yes	30	0.1%	$0.03
triklozoid	Yes	29.99	0.1%	$0.03
Rcat20205	Yes	28.71	3.5%	$1
Mediocre-Mechanic	Yes	28.57	3.5%	$1	Feb 28, 4:49 PM UTC
Well-Off-Coffin	Yes	25.69	7.4%	$1.9
BoughtTheTop	Yes	25	11.0%	$2.75
10000xpls	Yes	21.74	4.6%	$1
Awotoge	Yes	21.28	4.7%	$1
silverstreak	Yes	21.28	4.7%	$1
ventiduefok12	No	20.89	95.8%	$20
Igloolepetitchat	Yes	17.78	11.2%	$2
karnate	No	16.67	96.0%	$16
YenSzz	Yes	15	10.0%	$1.5
DeveloperAmateur	Yes	15	2.4%	$0.36
seexysatya	Yes	12.5	8.0%	$1
drunkobunko	Yes	12.5	8.0%	$1
Lauritzmoney	Yes	12.5	8.0%	$1
Boiling-Commission	No	10.64	94.0%	$10
liandri	No	10.16	98.4%	$10
DanielEtter	No	10.12	98.8%	$10	Feb 28, 7:55 PM UTC
Gentle-Pepperoni	No	10.09	97.1%	$9.8
dearpadre	Yes	10	10.0%	$1
cadburyfreddo	No	9.64	94.0%	$9.06
6ix5iveMoney	Yes	9.09	11.0%	$1
rocket661	Yes	6	1.0%	$0.06
rocketcrypto	Yes	5	1.0%	$0.05
88mnm88	Yes	4.82	1.8%	$0.09
Insubstantial-Department	No	4.19	95.4%	$4
Neon Ledger DAB2	No	2.02	98.9%	$2
degall	No	1.18	93.0%	$1.1
drunkcod	No	1.14	88.0%	$1
KARACAC	Yes	1.13	13.0%	$0.15
randomwords	No	1.11	90.0%	$1
jjuui789	No	1.02	97.9%	$1
16r0ob	Yes	0.73	2.0%	$0.01
thepolwinner	Yes	0.67	9.8%	$0.07

210 of 210 positions.

Holders by valueThe same holders, ranked by what their position is worth now.

Trader	Holding value
Ax37	$102.19
Mca10	$100
ventiduefok12	$20.89

Analytics