Analytics
Yes is at 19.8%, down 9.2 points from 29% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 328 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 30 Oct 2026 (32 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 55.5% on 7 Nov 2025 and the lowest 5.3% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9.6%; a month before, 13.8%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points up, to 55.5% on 7 Nov 2025.
It is one of 17 markets under “Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?”.
$539.83 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $61.45K since listing. The order book holds $5.48K, with a 10.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $4.24K bought Yes and $13.53K bought No.
The largest Yes position is goodluck81 with 1.5K shares; the largest No position is zxdfbdfgngcxv with 970. Ten wallets hold 81.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 328 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 29.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 19.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| goodluck81 | Yes | 1.5K |
| zxdfbdfgngcxv | No | 969.82 |
| randomWalkingShrimp | No | 884.92 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921
5 more markets, none above 9.0%.
| ScaryDream |
| Yes |
| 827.58 |
| LeopoldArschenbrenner | No | 568.51 |
| Krass | No | 359.62 |
| Perypery | Yes | 310.48 |
| ChetterHummin | Yes | 200 |
| AnCap.Investor | No | 179.86 |
| vitalitytens | No | 153.75 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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