Analytics
Yes is at 9.5%, down 47 points from 56% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 343 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 30 Oct 2026 (16 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 56% on 6 Nov 2025 and the lowest 9.5% on 19 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10%; a month before, 10%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 21% on 12 Nov 2025.
It is one of 17 markets under “Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?”.
$648.53 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $12.01K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 50 trades, $54.41 bought Yes and $190.17 bought No.
The largest Yes position is UnitedFruit with 97 shares; the largest No position is Krass with 164. Ten wallets hold 84.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 343 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 56.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 9.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Krass | No | 163.57 |
| UnitedFruit | Yes | 97.33 |
| randomWalkingShrimp | No | 51.11 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921
5 more markets, none above 9.0%.
| RTurner89 |
| Yes |
| 50.37 |
| roman-16 | No | 32.74 |
| S888 | No | 25 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 20.41 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 20.3 |
| Jade Beacon E3EA | Yes | 16.58 |
| 9df | Yes | 16.29 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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