Analytics
Yes is at 5.9%, down 55 points from 60.5% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 355 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 60.5% on 6 Nov 2025 and the lowest 3.4% on 3 May 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.1%; a month before, 6.6%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 34.5% on 7 Nov 2025.
It is one of 17 markets under “Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?”.
$13.48K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $11.98K, with a 4.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 273 trades, $849.28 bought Yes and $2.7K bought No.
The largest Yes position is aenews2 with 160 shares; the largest No position is Basquetipster with 1K. Ten wallets hold 67.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 355 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 60.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 5.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Basquetipster | No | 1K |
| Krass | No | 659.2 |
| shash-857 | No | 165.86 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921
4 more markets, none above 8.0%.
| aenews2 |
| Yes |
| 160 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 155 |
| tinman2 | Yes | 141.5 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 138.57 |
| randomWalkingShrimp | No | 120 |
| planktonXD | Yes | 112.16 |
| Jade Beacon E3EA | Yes | 102.21 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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