Analytics
Yes is at 10%, down 52 points from 62% when the market opened on 3 Mar 2026.
Across the 212 daily closes on record from 3 Mar 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (28 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 69% on 4 Mar 2026 and the lowest 6% on 6 Mar 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10%; a month before, 14%. Its largest one-day move was 57 points down, to 12% on 5 Mar 2026.
It is one of 8 markets under “Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$98K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $13.92K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.55K bought Yes and $22.48K bought No; the largest was a $1.78K buy of No at 89.0¢.
The largest Yes position is notrading with 9.3K shares; the largest No position is randomlypunting with 4.8K. Ten wallets hold 94% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 9:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 212 points, 3 Mar 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2026 | 62.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 10.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| notrading | Yes | 9.33K |
| randomlypunting | No | 4.79K |
| Solar Raven A90C | No | 2.21K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| MajoriT |
| No |
| 1.78K |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | No | 1.77K |
| defi-vitya | No | 622.47 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 600 |
| MaxEnt | No | 288.64 |
| Suhaslb94 | Yes | 238.79 |
| 5atka | Yes | 200 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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