Analytics
Yes is at 13.3%, down 11 points from 24% when the market opened on 3 Mar 2026.
Across the 211 daily closes on record from 3 Mar 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (30 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 37.2% on 15 Jul 2026 and the lowest 2.4% on 8 Mar 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 13.3%; a month before, 11.2%. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 37.2% on 15 Jul 2026.
It is one of 8 markets under “Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$10.08K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $13.15K, with a 6.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 165 trades, $45.86 bought Yes and $3.88K bought No; the largest was a $1.36K sell of No at 96.7¢.
The largest Yes position is Haradwaith with 343 shares; the largest No position is xixihaha009 with 285. Ten wallets hold 88.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 1:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 211 points, 3 Mar 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2026 | 24.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 13.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Haradwaith | Yes | 342.59 |
| xixihaha009 | No | 284.54 |
| MaxEnt | No | 180.05 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. |
| Yes |
| 100.46 |
| Obiviouslynotaninsider | Yes | 100 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 74.8 |
| Neon Kestrel D874 | No | 67.49 |
| mehanizator | Yes | 41 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 40 |
| Tired-Acoustics | No | 39.56 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
