Analytics
Yes is at 4.7%, down 3.3 points from 8% when the market opened on 3 Mar 2026.
Across the 210 daily closes on record from 3 Mar 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (31 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50.2% on 19 Jun 2026 and the lowest 2% on 2 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 7.3%; a month before, 7.2%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 15.5% on 26 Jun 2026.
It is one of 8 markets under “Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$2.05K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $82.28, with a 6.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 106 trades, $40.09 bought Yes and $215.8 bought No.
The largest Yes position is GuyFromTinder with 88 shares; the largest No position is pppnn with 30. Ten wallets hold 80.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:44 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 210 points, 3 Mar 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2026 | 8.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 88.29 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 43.21 |
| pppnn | No | 30 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| guiyujin |
| No |
| 12 |
| sludgelife | No | 10.8 |
| hhjui899 | No | 10.5 |
| ffsFsfq | Yes | 10 |
| jhhfhgh | No | 9.63 |
| EaaVirat55626 | No | 6.7 |
| chaiching | No | 6 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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