Analytics
Yes is at 10.9%, down 18 points from 29% when the market opened on 3 Mar 2026.
Across the 228 daily closes on record from 3 Mar 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (12 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49% on 29 Apr 2026 and the lowest 3.2% on 31 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 13%; a month before, 9.7%. Its largest one-day move was 38 points up, to 49% on 29 Apr 2026.
It is one of 8 markets under “Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$10.98K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $12.88K, with a 11.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 165 trades, $118.93 bought Yes and $4.05K bought No; the largest was a $1.51K buy of No at 90.7¢.
The largest Yes position is 2B9S with 170 shares; the largest No position is MaxEnt with 290. Ten wallets hold 90.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 228 points, 3 Mar 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2026 | 29.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 10.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MaxEnt | No | 290.37 |
| Solar Raven A90C | No | 263.59 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 170 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| xixihaha009 |
| Yes |
| 129.36 |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 125.97 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 81.18 |
| randomlypunting | No | 59.81 |
| Neon Kestrel D874 | Yes | 56.71 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 47.11 |
| tacor | No | 30 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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