Analytics
Yes is at 2.9%, down 6.6 points from 9.5% when the market opened on 3 Mar 2026.
Across the 218 daily closes on record from 3 Mar 2026 to 26 Oct 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 13.3% on 19 Jun 2026 and the lowest 1.5% on 3 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.9%; a month before, 2%. Its largest one-day move was 8.2 points down, to 5.1% on 20 Jun 2026.
It is one of 8 markets under “Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$1.1K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $145.89, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 61 trades, $19.04 bought Yes and $160.76 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Numitus1994 with 31 shares; the largest No position is lesssgoooo with 30.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 26, 9:18 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 218 points, 3 Mar 2026 – 26 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2026 | 9.5% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 2.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 31 |
| lesssgoooo | No | 30 |
| Indigo Tide 215D | Yes | 15.48 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| Kizo |
| No |
| 15.43 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 14.6 |
| rx8549o867549 | Yes | 5.02 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 4.75 |
| flexer78 | Yes | 2.94 |
| jgjjjj | Yes | 1.02 |
| sludgelife | No | 0.09 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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