Analytics
Yes is at 6.7%, up 2.2 points from 4.5% when the market opened on 3 Mar 2026.
Across the 209 daily closes on record from 3 Mar 2026 to 26 Oct 2026 (30 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 36.8% on 19 Jun 2026 and the lowest 1.7% on 28 Jun 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 8.9%; a month before, 5%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 30.9% on 16 Jun 2026.
It is one of 8 markets under “Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$3.83K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $191.16, with a 4.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 106 trades, $15.47 bought Yes and $1.25K bought No.
The largest Yes position is 2B9S with 168 shares; the largest No position is helpinghans with 179. Ten wallets hold 88.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 26, 8:40 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 209 points, 3 Mar 2026 – 26 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2026 | 4.5% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 6.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| helpinghans | No | 179.41 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 167.51 |
| Obiviouslynotaninsider | No | 98.1 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 92.04 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 58.27 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 39.73 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 35.01 |
| 73f44919CE0143F0e9a05F531f7C8B15c8a483a0. | Yes | 23 |
| airdorpslooog | No | 23 |
| njk95 | No | 22 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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