Analytics
Yes is at 13.9%, down 34 points from 48% when the market opened on 3 Mar 2026.
Across the 229 daily closes on record from 3 Mar 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51% on 4 Mar 2026 and the lowest 4.1% on 18 Mar 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 11.4%; a month before, 11.6%. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 12.5% on 5 Mar 2026.
It is one of 8 markets under “Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$43.07K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $10.54K, with a 5.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $199.85 bought Yes and $13.44K bought No; the largest was a $1.96K buy of No at 88.1¢.
The largest Yes position is user7777777 with 4.3K shares; the largest No position is Solar Raven A90C with 2.7K. Ten wallets hold 91.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:02 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 229 points, 3 Mar 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2026 | 48.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 13.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| user7777777 | Yes | 4.28K |
| Solar Raven A90C | No | 2.65K |
| randomlypunting | No | 1.61K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/probable-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 |
| No |
| 498.99 |
| MajoriT | No | 495.1 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 224.98 |
| rocky42024 | Yes | 221.89 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 211.26 |
| 5atka | Yes | 200 |
| bbxiang | No | 200 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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