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Iran leadership change by October 31?

geopoliticsActive

Closes Nov 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.5%

No

99.5%

Yes costs 0.45¢No costs 99.55¢

24h Volume

$15.3K

Total volume

$812.9K

Liquidity

$80.4K

Closes

Nov 1, 2026 UTC

Topic roomIran / Israel Escalation

TradesThe most recent trades, newest first.

Full tapeCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Trader	Side	Outcome	Price	Shares	Time
AlAhmeda	sell	No	99.6%	5.18K	Oct 29, 2:07 AM UTC
Chococremeux	buy	Yes	0.4%	250	Oct 29, 12:28 AM UTC
Kawabanga25	buy	Yes	0.3%	319.19	Oct 29, 12:00 AM UTC
AIisme	buy	Yes	0.3%	666.67	Oct 28, 11:11 PM UTC
Cosmic Ledger A910	sell	No	99.7%	5.01	Oct 28, 11:05 PM UTC
Cosmic Ledger A910	buy	No	99.7%	5.01	Oct 28, 11:04 PM UTC
Amber Tide 5488	sell	No	99.6%	5.01	Oct 28, 10:53 PM UTC
Amber Tide 5488	buy	No	99.7%	5.01	Oct 28, 10:53 PM UTC
Solar Orbit F36C	sell	No	99.6%	20.02	Oct 28, 10:50 PM UTC
Solar Orbit F36C	buy	No	99.7%	20.02	Oct 28, 10:50 PM UTC
ershiliu	buy	No	99.7%	454.24	Oct 28, 10:43 PM UTC
perfectcube	buy	No	99.7%	392.54	Oct 28, 10:43 PM UTC
almostadult	buy	No	99.7%	199.67	Oct 28, 10:43 PM UTC
twoeightten	buy	No	99.7%	199.98	Oct 28, 10:42 PM UTC
Amber Tide 5488	sell	No	99.6%	5	Oct 28, 10:40 PM UTC
Amber Tide 5488	buy	No	99.7%	5.01	Oct 28, 10:40 PM UTC
Amber Tide 5488	sell	No	99.6%	5.01	Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC
Amber Tide 5488	buy	No	99.7%	5.01	Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC
Cosmic Ledger A910	sell	No	99.6%	5	Oct 28, 10:20 PM UTC
Cosmic Ledger A910	buy	No	99.7%	5.01	Oct 28, 10:19 PM UTC
Cosmic Ledger A910	sell	No	99.6%	5.01	Oct 28, 10:03 PM UTC
Cosmic Ledger A910	buy	No	99.7%	5.01	Oct 28, 10:02 PM UTC
Amber Tide 5488	sell	No	99.6%	5	Oct 28, 9:54 PM UTC
Amber Tide 5488	buy	No	99.7%	5.01	Oct 28, 9:53 PM UTC
Solar Orbit F36C	sell	No	99.6%	25.02	Oct 28, 9:48 PM UTC
Solar Orbit F36C	buy	No	99.7%	25.03	Oct 28, 9:48 PM UTC
Cosmic Ledger A910	sell	No	99.6%	5	Oct 28, 9:34 PM UTC
Cosmic Ledger A910	buy	No	99.7%	5.01	Oct 28, 9:33 PM UTC
Lunar Signal A182	sell	No	99.6%	5	Oct 28, 9:27 PM UTC
Lunar Signal A182	buy	No	99.7%	5.01	Oct 28, 9:26 PM UTC
Jade Voyager 9755	sell	No	99.6%	5	Oct 28, 9:19 PM UTC
Jade Voyager 9755	buy	No	99.7%	5.01	Oct 28, 9:19 PM UTC
Amber Tide 5488	sell	No	99.6%	10.01	Oct 28, 9:11 PM UTC
Amber Tide 5488	buy	No	99.7%	10.01	Oct 28, 9:10 PM UTC
Bold Quasar E623	sell	No	99.6%	0.29	Oct 28, 8:39 PM UTC
nonkenny90	buy	No	99.7%	5.56K	Oct 28, 8:39 PM UTC
SuperMister	sell	Yes	0.4%	516.33	Oct 28, 7:53 PM UTC
bigdihhh888	sell	No	99.4%	1.85	Oct 28, 7:04 PM UTC
nonkenny90	buy	No	99.5%	900	Oct 28, 6:57 PM UTC
classified	buy	Yes	0.6%	4.33K	Oct 28, 6:07 PM UTC
678raven	sell	No	99.4%	20.5	Oct 28, 3:17 PM UTC
678raven	buy	No	99.5%	7.03	Oct 28, 2:34 PM UTC
678raven	buy	No	99.5%	13.48	Oct 28, 2:19 PM UTC
Solar Orbit F36C	sell	No	99.4%	7.51	Oct 28, 1:38 PM UTC
Solar Orbit F36C	buy	No	99.5%	7.51	Oct 28, 1:37 PM UTC
Neon Lynx 09E9	sell	No	99.4%	5	Oct 28, 1:26 PM UTC
Neon Lynx 09E9	buy	No	99.5%	5.01	Oct 28, 1:26 PM UTC
Solar Orbit F36C	sell	No	99.4%	5	Oct 28, 1:16 PM UTC
Solar Orbit F36C	buy	No	99.5%	5.01	Oct 28, 1:15 PM UTC
Jade Voyager 9755	sell	No	99.4%	12.51	Oct 28, 12:48 PM UTC
Jade Voyager 9755	buy	No	99.5%	12.51	Oct 28, 12:48 PM UTC
BabyGroot	sell	Yes	0.6%	724.23	Oct 28, 12:30 PM UTC
Malganis	sell	Yes	0.6%	0.77	Oct 28, 12:04 PM UTC
Pantheon1	sell	No	99.3%	488.11	Oct 28, 11:44 AM UTC
compute	buy	Yes	0.7%	625.5	Oct 27, 8:01 PM UTC
Aragorn-II	sell	No	99.3%	299.99	Oct 27, 5:05 PM UTC
moneymaxing	sell	No	99.3%	120	Oct 27, 4:44 PM UTC
thoodr	buy	No	99.4%	3K	Oct 27, 2:39 AM UTC
thoodr	buy	No	99.4%	10K	Oct 27, 2:24 AM UTC
breakingcute	sell	No	99.3%	21.27	Oct 27, 1:21 AM UTC

60 of the 500 most recent trades.Subscribers can pull the full trade history where Vultax has archived it.

Topic room

Read this market in context

Iran / Israel Escalation oddsConflict, strike, leadership-stability, and escalation markets

What to watch in Iran / Israel Escalation

Military action by either state or by allied groups
Statements from the US government on involvement
Inspections, talks and announcements on Iran's nuclear programme

Research behind the numbers

How well Polymarket prices match outcomes